I’m still glowing after Sarah Palin’s tremendous victory in tonight’s VP debate, but I did want to chime in on the latest Siena Poll which confirmed my suspicions about their previous poll.  

The previous Siena Poll had the race in New York State a statistical tie. The new poll has Barack up 22 points.

Now the narrative behind this new poll is that Obama has “surged” in New York. But, truthfully, it was not a surge, the new poll mirrors Obama’s standing in the state as virtually every other poll of the state has shown.

UPDATE: Scott Leffler says I “finally admitted” that New York is not in play. Of course, I never said I really believed it was. After the previous Siena poll I specifically said, “I’d like to see a couple other new polls reflect the same competitiveness in the state before I start looking at New York as a battleground state,” and “still there’s plenty of reason to doubt the race in New York is really within the margin of error.”

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I was just alerted to a new poll, sponsored by the DCCC and EMILY’s List, that claims that Alice Kryzan has a 10-point lead over Chris Lee

A Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies poll of 400 likely voters shows that Alice Kryzan holds a 10-point lead over Republican candidate for Congress Chris Lee with 39 percent to 29 percent and 32 percent undecided. The poll, which was commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List, was conducted September 15-17 with a 4.9 percent margin of error. Attached is a polling memo from pollster Cornell Belcher.

“This poll shows that just 42 days before Election Day, Alice Kryzan is in good position to win,” said Carrie James, regional press secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “With a weakened economy, Chris Lee’s record of moving jobs to China just doesn’t sell in Western New York. Alice Kryzan has the independence and integrity to represent Western New York in Congress and this poll shows a clear path to victory.”

Now, there are so many things wrong with the poll it’s hard to know where to begin.

Well, let’s start with the obvious: The poll was conducted by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies which is a liberal group. Based on their own memo, they must know their methods are suspect, because they did not release the poll’s crosstabs and methodology. So, there are two key thing we do not know:

• The sample size of Republicans, Democrats and Independents.
• The wording and order of the exact questions asked.

The reason the sample size for each party affiliation is important is because in the 26th district, the Republican Party has an undeniable advantage. The district went 51-44 for Bush in 200, and 55-43 for Bush in 2004. The Republican Party has more registered voters than the Democratic Party in the district as well. I am willing to bet that the poll under-sampled Republicans significantly.

Some might argue that the political climate for Republicans is not considered to be great. That’s only partially true. I would argue the Democrats had a greater advantage in 2006, and Tom Reynolds still managed to win reelection.

Yes, this year Republicans did have a significant deficit on the generic congressional ballot… but that was only until recently:

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latestUSA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

If that’s the case in voters’ “generic ballot” then one could easily conclude that Chris Lee, already enjoying an advantage with party registration, would have an even bigger advantage as a result of that shift. That shift, of course, is largely attributed to a surge in enthusiasm amongst Republicans following John McCain’s selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Months prior to the Palin Effect, two nonpartisan groups had already seen a pro-Republican shift in the district.

And then we have to wonder why the memo did not release the exact wording and order of the questions asked in the poll. The idiolect of the memo from Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies is by no means objective. Which leads me to believe that the wording of the questions were not objective and crafted in such a way for the poll to achieve a desired result. In other words, this was likely a push poll.

Now it’s not surprising that several liberal bloggers in WNY are eating this poll up. Robert Harding at The Albany Project calls the poll exciting even though he usually takes such polls with a grain of salt.

Rochester Turning is not nearly as pumped by the poll, but believes it shows the race should be competitive.

But, neither asked the same questions about the poll as I have. Why not? Because the poll tells them what they want to hear, and that’s good enough to motivate them into thinking Kryzan can pull it off.

Considering all the money that was donated to Jon Powers’ failed campaign by the netroots, a poll like this is more useful as a fundraising tool for Alice Kryzan than as a legitimate snapshot of the state of the congressional race.

UPDATE: I have to say that I’m disappointed that friend Scott Leffler seems to take the poll at face value:

A 10 point lead has got to be nice for Kryzan. But 32 percent undecided in a Republican district has got to be a concern for her. Of course, she would only need slightly more than a third of the undecideds to win.

UPDATE: Roll Call has a story that backs up my assessment of the poll:

Republicans are sure to cry foul when they see the poll results. The Western New York district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats — as of March 1, there were 178,000 Republicans and 141,000 Democrats, while 121,000 voters were registered with minor parties or unaffiliated.

Yet the pollsters, while acknowledging that the district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats, said 33 percent of the voters surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 32 percent Republicans and 25 percent independents.

I also said that the poll was more likely a fundraising tool for Kryzan… this part seems to support that to:

Despite the district’s leanings, Democrats have been bullish about their chances of winning Reynolds’ seat. But the DCCC backed a candidate other than Kryzan — Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who remains on the general election ballot as the nominee of the Working Families Party — and Democrats have been scrambling to shore her up since her primary win. Through Aug. 20, Lee, who is personally wealthy, was sitting on $751,000 in his campaign account, while Kryzan had just $95,000.

And one can’t help laughing at the irony of the last paragraph of the story:

The DCCC began airing an ad in the district over the weekend accusing Lee of sending some of his company’s business to China. Ironically, in a clerical error in its Federal Election Commission filing for the independent expenditure, the DCCC said it was placing the ad on behalf of Powers.

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There’s certainly a lot of chatter about the latest Siena poll showing New York being in play for John McCain. All the talk has certainly increased enthusiasm not just for Republicans, but for Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats who support McCain/Palin:

The “Palin effect” has given the McCain campaign a lift in [New York State], putting it within reach, according to Edward Cox, McCain’s state campaign chief. 

“We are doing much better among women and Democrats,” Cox said during a visit to Republican headquarters downtown. “These are Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats.”

Cox pointed to a Siena College poll, released Monday, that found McCain trailed Obama by 5 percentage points, compared with an 8-point gap last month and 13 points in July.

Sarah Palin, McCain’s running mate, has electrified many undecided voters, including local “hockey moms,” campaign officials said.

But other polls report a wider gap, and Obama campaign spokesman Blake Zeff dismissed the prediction of a close race as wishful thinking.

The last Republican presidential candidate to win New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Cox’s prediction may help boost Republican turnout and energize campaign volunteers, who were disappointed at McCain’s lack of a public appearance when he visited Buffalo for a fundraiser in July.

But Cox fell short of pledging a serious campaign for the state. He wouldn’t predict that McCain will visit the area, and said the McCain campaign has no plans for a television advertising blitz in New York unless the poll gap narrows further.

Even voters from Democratic strongholds, however, are calling with support, drawn by the energy that Palin has brought to the ticket, local Republicans said.

“They don’t want McCain signs; they want McCain/Palin signs,” said Russ Gugino, regional campaign coordinator.

“There are an awful lot of hockey moms in Western New York who can relate to Gov. Palin,” said James Domagalski, chairman of the Erie County Republican Party.

This story reinforces my earlier point that it will have to take a number of other polls showing a tight race in New York to merit either John McCain investing money here to score an upset, or for Barack Obama doing the same in order to hold his ground.

Still, the local Republican committees in New York state have a huge opportunity with this surge of enthusiasm. They should be signing people up for massive Get Out The Vote efforts in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Recent polls show McCain is ahead in Ohio, but not comfortably ahead. We’ll undoubtedly need a good ground game there. While I’m not worried about Ohio, it is vital to McCain’s chances of victory.

But, what could really help McCain is a surge of his supporters getting out the vote in Pennsylvania, where polls are very close. If McCain wins in Pennsylvania, he wins the election.

New York, as far as the presidential election is concerned, isn’t important. The Real Clear Politics Average for the state shows there’s no justifiable reason for McCain to waste any resources here.

If the Republican committees in New York don’t take advantage of the surge of enthusiasm by building up a massive Election Day GOTV army to send to Ohio and Pennsylvania, than they are only helping Obama.

For the sake of the county, I hope they aren’t squandering that opportunity.

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Following up on my earlier report that a new poll has Obama’s lead in New York trimmed down to 5 points, Ed Cox, who heads John McCain’s New York campaign, believes the poll shows that New York State is very much in play.

The man who heads John McCain’s New York campaign says the Empire State has been very blue in the last four presidential elections with democratic candidates carrying the state by 15 to 30 percentage points.

Ed Cox says that’s about to change. He points to Barack Obama’s 18 point lead in a June Siena College poll that recently has dwindled to just more than two points. Cox calls it a sign New Yorkers are buying into McCain’s message.

 

“He’s a reformer, that he’s a maverick, he’s a real agent of change, he has the experience to protect and defend the people of this country in respect to national security affairs,” Cox explained. “John McCain, for all those reasons which came out at the convention and of course his nominating Governor Palin as his vice presidential candidate, all those things have put New York into play.”

Cox doesn’t believe Hillary Clinton’s influence will be enough for Obama to carry New York State. Cox says comments Clinton made during the primaries that Obama is not ready to be president will sway many of her supporters to vote for McCain.

Cox wouldn’t say if McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, would convince Hillary supporters to consider the republican ticket. Instead he goes back to the New York senator’s earlier statements on Obama lacking experience.

“A lot of her supporters are taking her at her word on that,” he said. “They’re taking a look at both candidates and they’re coming to John McCain’s banner. It’s very gratifying to see them coming over to support John McCain.” 

I’m still skeptical that New York really is in play, but it is obvious from multiple polls that Obama’s lead here has dropped significantly. This, while may not be enough to bring about a McCain victory here, does indicate a larger problem for Obama in actual battleground states, such as our  neighboring states Ohio and Pennsylvania. Personally, while it is nice to see the polls close here, I’d much rather see the New York State Republican Party concentrate their GOTV resources for the presidential race down in those states.

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A new poll by the Siena Research Institute shows New York is looking a lot more purple than blue, with Obama leading McCain 46-41… the poll has a MOE of +/- 3.9 points.

The race for the White House is a statistical dead heat, according to a new poll.

Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, leads Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee, 46 percent to 41 percent in a survey of 626 registered voters by the Siena Research Institute in upstate Loudonville. The survey, conducted last week, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ’safe’ state for Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said pollster Steven Greenberg. “The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

Democrats have a 5:3 enrollment advantage in the state.

The poll also found that 47% of respondents say Sarah Palin is qualified to be president, while only 41% said she isn’t.

Things look well for Republicans on the state level as well.

In terms of state issues, people were evenly divided, 44 percent to 44 percent, on whether the State Senate should remain in Republican hands. The GOP majority is down to just two seats with Democrats making a strong push to take control of the legislature’s upper chamber for the first time in more than 40 years.

This is huge. If this poll is correct, New York is in play. If New York is in play, then this is really bad news for Barack Obama, as it is clear that as we get closer to the election, McCain is increasing his lead in battleground states, or is closing the gap.

Of course, this poll could merely be an outlier. Quite frankly, as encouraging as this poll is, I’d like to see a couple other new polls reflect the same competitiveness in the state before I start looking at New York as a battleground state. There have been polls that had Obama up by eight points, but most have given him a very solid lead.

UPDATE: Real Clear Politics Poll Average has Obama up by 15 points in New York. There has, however, been a significant jump for McCain in New York, and it is worth noting that prior to the poll from Siena Research Institute, the last poll is over a month old.  The last poll from Siena had Obama up by 8. So, their polling has shown a similar tightening of the race as other polls have.

I have no doubt McCain is closing the gap in New York, but I need to see more polling that shows the race as tight as Siena has it before I’ll believe it is truly that close.

UPDATE: Russ Gugino, head of McCain’s campaign in Western New York reacts:

“I’m pleasantly surprised, but not too surprised,” says Russ Gugino, the head of McCain’s campaign in Western New York.

“I’m not worried,” says Betty Jean Grant, a local Obama organizer.

Not worried she says because she believes the new numbers reflect a post-convention bounce for McCain caused by his choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President.

“I think people who might be a little angry, frustrated, because Hillary (Cinton) did not make the choice for Vice President,” she says.

“These people are going to say at the end of the day ‘I’m going to do what’s best for my family, what’s best for my pocketbook, what’s best for me.’”

NBC Mews political analyst Chuck Todd tells Scott Brown that when looking at the new poll, it’s important to note that McCain didn’t pick up any new voters.

Todd says the race got a little closer only because some Obama voters moved into the undecided column after the Republican convention, and that’s to be expected Todd says.

Scott Brown: “Do you think McCain has any shot in New York, and do you think we’ll see him do any campaigning here?” Todd: “No, he’s got no shot in New York. It’s really tough when you look at where he’s got to do well in other parts of the country to spend the money that it would take to make New York competitive, it’s just not a wise investment.”

“We’re trying to get Sarah Palin here, we’re trying to get John McCain here,” says Russ Gugino.

I don’t think the poll is showing the effect of a post-convention bounce. I think it shows a gradual bleed of support away from Obama. Polls of the state have trended in that direction. Still there’s plenty of reason to doubt the race in New York is really within the margin of error.

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This afternoon while I was on my lunch, I happened to flip through the latest issue of the left-wing rag Artvoice. I’m not sure why I bother looking at it. The writing is horrible and unbalanced. 

That aside, I didn’t read any articles, but there was an ad that caught my eye almost immediately. It was an ad for Lebro’s Restaurant. 

I have no idea what to make of this ad, or if there’s really anything to make of it. Artvoice is undeniably a left-wing paper, so I was rather shocked to see the Palin’s family portrait being used in an ad. Now, I don’t usually read Artvoice, so I don’t know if this is something Lebro’s Restaurant typically does — use topical photos in their advertisements — or if this is a unique ad.

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I have to admit, that I never really had a major problem with David Paterson since he became governor. Today, however, he has pissed me off beyond belief, by taking a page right out of the DNC playbook and playing the race card.

On Monday, Gov. David Paterson angered some state lawmakers by comparing them to vampires, calling them a bunch of “blood suckers.” On Tuesday, he raised eyebrows again, and tempers, by accusing the John McCain campaign of veiled racism.

At the Crain’s Business Forum this morning, Paterson drew attention to a phrase used numerous times by speakers at the Republican National Convention to describe Barack Obama’s leadership experience: community organizer.

“I think the Republican Party is too smart to call Barack Obama ‘black’ in a sense that it would be a negative. But you can take something about his life, which I noticed they did at the Republican Convention – a ‘community organizer.’ They kept saying it, they kept laughing,” he said.

Paterson referred to McCain’s running mate Sarah Palin who compared her work experience to Obama’s.

“So I suppose a small town mayor is sort of like a community organizer, except with real responsibilities,” she said at the convention.

Paterson sees the repeated use of the words “community organizer” as Republican code for “black”.

Sadly, this is the game Democrats want to play. Protect the Obamessiah by accusing his rivals who dare criticism his lack of experience.

How dare you, Mr. Paterson. How dare you! 

David Paterson has accused all Republicans of being racist. 

I am a proud supporter of John McCain. I am a proud conservative Republican. I will not be bullied into keeping legitimate criticisms of Barack Obama’s experience (or more accurately, lack of experience) quiet.

I may have long disagreed with Paterson on various issues, but I didn’t dislike him or consider him a political enemy. Until tonight.

David Paterson has proven to be as shameless as the rest of the Democratic Party. I thought he was above that.

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Russ Gugino, the McCain campaign’s coordinator for Western New York, believes “the buzz provided by Governor Palin’s addition to the Republican ticket may be enough to overcome Barack Obama’s eight point poll lead in New York State,” according to WNED.

I certainly agree that Sarah Palin changes the dynamic of the race. I certainly hope the enthusiasm she brings to the ticket closes the gap between Obama and McCain in this state, and, at the very least, forces Obama to use campaign resources to campaign here.

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WBEN has audio of Chris Collins’ speech to the Republican National Convention last night, and had this to say about it:

Erie County Executive Chris Collins was in the spotlight at the Republican National Convention Wednesday evening.

He voiced his support for Gov. Sarah Palin as the vice-presidential nominee, saying there is an individual on a major ticket with experience in local government. Collins said Palin “brings a body of knowledge and experience too few in Washington have.”

Collins explained his use of Six Sigma makes government more accountable and responsive to residents’ needs, and also noted the response to the threat of Hurricane Gustav was an example of meeting residents’ needs.

Collins was among many urging folks to give to organizations best assisting in hurricane relief efforts.

WBEN also noted that Collins is seen as a rising star in the Republican Party:

Even before Chris Collins made a speech at the RNC, he was already making friends in the Republican party across the state and across the country. New York GOP Delegate Russ Gugiono tells WBEN’s Steve Cichon that some in Downstaters were so impressed with Collins, that some are even considering the County Executive a possible Gubenatorial candidate ion 2010. You can hear Steve’s report by clicking here.

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What else is there to say? She hit a grand slam.

Ed Cox says Palin good for New York:

Ed Cox [...] chairman of the John McCain campaign in New York, said this morning that Sarah Palin will help the ticket in New York, especially with upstate’s conservative voting bloc.

“You look at the large undecided group is upstate New York, and these are basically people within the Republican Party, Reagan Democrats, others were unsure about John McCain in respect to the issues that are important to them,” Cox, left, said on Fred Dicker’s radio show this morning.

“And Sarah Palin underscores John McCain’s positions.”

New York Republicans are emboldened by a recent Siena College poll that showed Barack Obama with only an eight percentage point lead in New York. They want McCain to campaign more in New York.

Cox said Palin—who is pro-life, pro gun rights—will help McCain with voters in traditionally Republican parts of the state.

MORE: Our Next Vice President, Sarah Palin. Dear Democrats.

A great review of Palin’s speech.

Sarah Palin managed what no one else has managed to do during this presidential campaign.  She systematically and brutally tore apart Obama’s audacity of rhetoric.  There is no doubt anymore that Obama wants to raise taxes, grow government, stifle individual innovation and responsibility, and subject us to an ever-more invasive government.  

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John McCain has selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. An absolutely fantastic choice.

Erie County Republican Chairman Jim Domagalski will be addressing John McCain selection of Sarah Palin at a 2pm press conference at Erie County Republican Headquarters.

UPDATE: It’s funny when supporters of Barack Obama, the most inexperienced major party candidate for president in history, try to play the experience card with Palin.

UPDATE: It looks like Buffalo Pundit on his Democrat blog took issue with a comment I made in this thread.Unfortunately for him, he didn’t have any DNC talking points handy and needed to ask his readers to help him respond. And from the looks of things, he hasn’t gotten any good talking points to counter my statement.

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