NY-26: Bogus DCCC Poll Claims Kryzan Has 10-Point Lead
Tags: Alice Kryzan, Chris Lee, John McCain, Jon Powers, netroots, Sarah Palin, Tom Reynolds
I was just alerted to a new poll, sponsored by the DCCC and EMILY’s List, that claims that Alice Kryzan has a 10-point lead over Chris Lee
A Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies poll of 400 likely voters shows that Alice Kryzan holds a 10-point lead over Republican candidate for Congress Chris Lee with 39 percent to 29 percent and 32 percent undecided. The poll, which was commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List, was conducted September 15-17 with a 4.9 percent margin of error. Attached is a polling memo from pollster Cornell Belcher.
“This poll shows that just 42 days before Election Day, Alice Kryzan is in good position to win,” said Carrie James, regional press secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “With a weakened economy, Chris Lee’s record of moving jobs to China just doesn’t sell in Western New York. Alice Kryzan has the independence and integrity to represent Western New York in Congress and this poll shows a clear path to victory.”
Now, there are so many things wrong with the poll it’s hard to know where to begin.
Well, let’s start with the obvious: The poll was conducted by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies which is a liberal group. Based on their own memo, they must know their methods are suspect, because they did not release the poll’s crosstabs and methodology. So, there are two key thing we do not know:
- The sample size of Republicans, Democrats and Independents.
- The wording and order of the exact questions asked.
The reason the sample size for each party affiliation is important is because in the 26th district, the Republican Party has an undeniable advantage. The district went 51-44 for Bush in 200, and 55-43 for Bush in 2004. The Republican Party has more registered voters than the Democratic Party in the district as well. I am willing to bet that the poll under-sampled Republicans significantly.
Some might argue that the political climate for Republicans is not considered to be great. That’s only partially true. I would argue the Democrats had a greater advantage in 2006, and Tom Reynolds still managed to win reelection.
Yes, this year Republicans did have a significant deficit on the generic congressional ballot… but that was only until recently:
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latestUSA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
If that’s the case in voters’ “generic ballot” then one could easily conclude that Chris Lee, already enjoying an advantage with party registration, would have an even bigger advantage as a result of that shift. That shift, of course, is largely attributed to a surge in enthusiasm amongst Republicans following John McCain’s selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.
Months prior to the Palin Effect, two nonpartisan groups had already seen a pro-Republican shift in the district.
And then we have to wonder why the memo did not release the exact wording and order of the questions asked in the poll. The idiolect of the memo from Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies is by no means objective. Which leads me to believe that the wording of the questions were not objective and crafted in such a way for the poll to achieve a desired result. In other words, this was likely a push poll.
Now it’s not surprising that several liberal bloggers in WNY are eating this poll up. Robert Harding at The Albany Project calls the poll exciting even though he usually takes such polls with a grain of salt.
Rochester Turning is not nearly as pumped by the poll, but believes it shows the race should be competitive.
But, neither asked the same questions about the poll as I have. Why not? Because the poll tells them what they want to hear, and that’s good enough to motivate them into thinking Kryzan can pull it off.
Considering all the money that was donated to Jon Powers’ failed campaign by the netroots, a poll like this is more useful as a fundraising tool for Alice Kryzan than as a legitimate snapshot of the state of the congressional race.
UPDATE: I have to say that I’m disappointed that friend Scott Leffler seems to take the poll at face value:
A 10 point lead has got to be nice for Kryzan. But 32 percent undecided in a Republican district has got to be a concern for her. Of course, she would only need slightly more than a third of the undecideds to win.
UPDATE: Roll Call has a story that backs up my assessment of the poll:
Republicans are sure to cry foul when they see the poll results. The Western New York district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats — as of March 1, there were 178,000 Republicans and 141,000 Democrats, while 121,000 voters were registered with minor parties or unaffiliated.
Yet the pollsters, while acknowledging that the district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats, said 33 percent of the voters surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 32 percent Republicans and 25 percent independents.
I also said that the poll was more likely a fundraising tool for Kryzan… this part seems to support that to:
Despite the district’s leanings, Democrats have been bullish about their chances of winning Reynolds’ seat. But the DCCC backed a candidate other than Kryzan — Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who remains on the general election ballot as the nominee of the Working Families Party — and Democrats have been scrambling to shore her up since her primary win. Through Aug. 20, Lee, who is personally wealthy, was sitting on $751,000 in his campaign account, while Kryzan had just $95,000.
And one can’t help laughing at the irony of the last paragraph of the story:
The DCCC began airing an ad in the district over the weekend accusing Lee of sending some of his company’s business to China. Ironically, in a clerical error in its Federal Election Commission filing for the independent expenditure, the DCCC said it was placing the ad on behalf of Powers.
Matt Margolis is co-author (with Mark Noonan) of Caucus of Corruption: The Truth About The New Democratic Majority. He also blogs at Blogs For Victory. Follow Matt on Twitter.
It’s obvious DCCC conducted two polls, one for the public and one for their own internal use. The one they released to the media is inherently biased and they know it. But it is being used to pump up local democrats and possibly increase fundraising from individual citizens and businesses looking to gain access to Kryzan upon his supposed imminent election.
The internal poll will be used for their own use, to track their problems and gain additional funding from trustworthy friends, (ie labor unions, businesses) that are worried he may lose the election and want to help put him over the top.
-J.Burke
http://www.TheFrontlineCoalition.com
JBurke, those are some fascinating insights from somebody clearly very involved and up to speed with the race in the 26th. I can tell that you know what you’re talking about because you managed to spell “Kryzan” right. Although, I must say that for somebody so in the know that it’s “obvious” to them what’s really going on, I am surprised that you would mistake the gender of the candidate not once, but twice in your posting.
Alice Kryzan is a woman running for congress in the 26th district. Better luck next time.
[...] this new poll totally contradicts the findings of the earlier poll put out by the DCCC, which had Kryzan up by 10 points, with nearly 1/3 of respondents undecided. Why should this new [...]
Anyone who votes for two candidates who have been cited for ethical violations and abuse of power by their governing bodies has no clue.
Anyone who votes for someone who attempted to screw Ingram Micro has no clue.
Jon Powers is OFF the ballot:
http://www.buffalonews.com/home/story/479987.html
Let’s put the wood to Margolis and Lee…contribute here:
http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/18393