I’ve noticed a lot of ads on TV for the tight race Senate District 61 between Mike Ranzenhofer and Baby Joe. So, I’ve decided to weigh in on two of those ads, one from each campaign, that features the candidate talking to the camera.

First, here’s Mike Ranzenhofer’s:

Next, here’s Baby Joe’s:

The differences between these ads can be distinguished simply as substance vs. style. They both pretty much say the same thing, but Ranzenhofer’s ad gives specifics about what his positions are (i.e. cutting taxes, spending, and capping property taxes) while Baby Joe avoids specifics on how he plans to keep jobs and people in Western New York, and instead presents himself as an average guy who is likable.

Each ad is effective for different reasons.

Ranzenhofer’s is effective because the message of lower taxes, cutting spending and property tax caps will resonate in the district. Baby Joe’s ad is effective because it’s hard not to like him after watching the ad.

Baby Joe is trying to sell himself as a personaility with his ad. Mike Ranzenhofer is running on issues and specific proposals.

Now, normally I would give the edge to an issues-based campaign, however, as the presidential race this year has shown, issues are far less important than personality and buzzwords. If, God forbid, Barack Obama wins in November, it won’t be because of issues, it will be because he sold his image effectively, not because most people really agree with his Socialism-style plans or defeatist attitude on the war on terror.

Now, if I were advising both candidates, I would give them both the following advice. To Baby Joe, I would say he has to be more specific about his positions on the issues in his ads. I’d like to believe people will want to know how he thinks he can keep people and jobs in Western New York. 

Mike Ranzenhofer has to present himself as equally likable as Baby Joe, but also use his past experience as proof he has the ability to actually accomplish the goals he presents. He needs to explain the reasons why people and jobs are leaving New York, and demonstrate he’s the one in the race that can actually do something about it.

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I’m still glowing after Sarah Palin’s tremendous victory in tonight’s VP debate, but I did want to chime in on the latest Siena Poll which confirmed my suspicions about their previous poll.  

The previous Siena Poll had the race in New York State a statistical tie. The new poll has Barack up 22 points.

Now the narrative behind this new poll is that Obama has “surged” in New York. But, truthfully, it was not a surge, the new poll mirrors Obama’s standing in the state as virtually every other poll of the state has shown.

UPDATE: Scott Leffler says I “finally admitted” that New York is not in play. Of course, I never said I really believed it was. After the previous Siena poll I specifically said, “I’d like to see a couple other new polls reflect the same competitiveness in the state before I start looking at New York as a battleground state,” and “still there’s plenty of reason to doubt the race in New York is really within the margin of error.”

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Chris Lee has a new ad running. Here it is:

How long before Alice In Liberal-land whines about being attacked?

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While Brian Higgins voted for the massive bailout plan that failed yesterday, Dan Humiston has come out against the bailout, saying it is the wrong answer to our economic crisis.

“I am firmly against a plan that requires innocent Western New Yorkers to clean up the financial mess that greed on Wall Street created. Our community wasn’t responsible for and didn’t benefit from Wall Street’s sub-prime fiasco, so why should we have to pay to fix it?” Humiston said.

“I applaud the House of Representatives for their decision to reject the proposed corporate bailout. I hope that those who voted against the bailout will continue to stand their ground and tell Wall Street that their votes are not for sale. I’m disappointed that Congressman Higgins voted to support the bailout. It’s unfortunate that he chose to support his friends on Wall St. instead of the hardworking families in Western New York.”

Humiston also said that “Western New York families can’t afford to bail out Wall Street. We shouldn’t allow the Wall Street-manipulated media or politicians with hidden agendas to scare us into making a bad decision.”

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Looks like Sam Hoyt has been given a virtual pass from his buddies in the Assembly:

Assemblyman Sam Hoyt escaped the most serious punishment by his Assembly colleagues for his extramarital affair with an intern, but college interns have been banned from his Albany and Buffalo offices.

The ban, announced Friday by Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, followed a finding by the Assembly Ethics and Guidance Committee that the Buffalo Democrat had engaged in an “inappropriate personal relationship” with the woman, who was an intern when the affair began.

But stronger penalties — a formal censure or loss of his committee chairmanship — was not taken because she no longer was an intern in 2004 when the Assembly banned fraternization between lawmakers and interns.

Well, another Democrats gets away. Big shock.

Gerry Studds would be so proud.

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I am on the road to an undisclosed location in Ohio, but I did receive an email just now informing me that a new scientific poll conducted by SurveyUSA for WGRZ has Chris Lee leading leading Alice Kryzan 48%-37%.

UPDATE, Sunday, September 28, 2008, 6:23 PM: I have returned from my mini-vacation in Put-In Bay, OH. Now that I’m back, I thought I’d offer more on this new, legitimate poll.

A scientific poll conducted exclusively for 2 On Your Side by Survey USA shows republican Chris Lee leading democrat Alice Kryzan 48% to 37% in the race for the 26th congressional district. 

The poll was conducted by Survey USA, an independent research company that conducted a telephone survey of 900 registered voters in the 26th congressional district on September 24th and 25th.
Working Families Party candidate Jon Powers received 5% of the vote today. Independence Party candidate Anthony Fumerelle, who was replaced by the Independence Party with Republican Chris Lee during the field period of this survey, took 3% of the vote.

7% of likely voters are undecided.

Now, this new poll totally contradicts the findings of the earlier poll put out by the DCCC, which had Kryzan up by 10 points, with nearly 1/3 of respondents undecided. Why should this new poll be trusted and the DCCC not? Well, I’ve already explained why you can’t trust the DCCC poll.

WBRZ posted the internals for this SurveyUSA poll, (the DCCC did not post their internals) and there is a lot of good data you can take from it… all of it bodes well for Chris Lee. He leads among men, women, and Independents.  

Neither Scott Leffler or Buffalo Pundit have chimed in on this new poll, but Robert Harding of The Albany Project has:

This poll counters a DCCC-backed poll from earlier this week that showed Kryzan up ten points. I will take SurveyUSA’s word over the DCCC poll. Kryzan being up ten in this district was a little weird to me, but made for a great news story and a great way to raise money for her anyway. Nevertheless, there is a lot of work to do in this district.  

Now this is interesting because it is pretty much what I said last week when the poll first came out:

[The DCCC poll]  is more useful as a fundraising tool for Alice Kryzan than as a legitimate snapshot of the state of the congressional race.

Maybe it worked and Kryzan was able to raise a bit of money from her bogus poll. But, the SurveyUSA poll is probably going to make people think twice before giving her any of their hard-earned gas money.

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The Independence Party, New York’s third-largest political party, announced they are endorsing Chris Lee for Congress in the 26th District. Chris Lee released the following statement upon learning of the endorsement:

“I am honored to have the endorsement of New York State’s Independence Party.  I greatly appreciate their support in this election.

“On November 4, the people of Western New York will have a clear choice, and the opportunity to send a real independent voice to Washington who will restore fiscally responsibility and fight to lessen the tax burden on our families. 

 ”Washington is broken - I will fight to end the gridlock and restore taxpayer trust by holding leaders accountable for how they spend our hard earned money. 

“In these tough economic times we need a new direction in Congress and a leader who has the real-world experience to get solutions for our families.”

The Buffalo News reports:

The development is seen as a major coup for Lee, who now has the top two minor party lines along with the GOP slot.

The Independence Party was able to place Lee on the ballot under its line by exercising a series of technical moves.

Anthony L. Fumerelle previously had been the Independence Party’s candidate, but is now nominated for a State Supreme Court judgeship in Queens even though Fumerlle is a Buffalo attorney.

Other than death, nomination for a Supreme Court post is the only way a candidate can be replaced at this late date, according to state election law.

“We requested that Anthony move off after we found what we consider to be the best candidate for our line,” State Vice Chairman Thomas S. Connolly said. “This is necessary in a very tough situation where we are in the midst of a primary and you can’t determine who the candidates will be until after.”

When asked why voters should have confidence in a party that switches candidates after nominating them, Connolly said confusion in the Independence Party and in the Democratic primary caused the minor party to take the unusual step.

According to the story, Alice Kryzan was not considered for the endorsement.

 Connolly said the party did not contact Democrat Alice J. Kryzan, feeling more comfortable with the former businessman from Amherst.

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Interesting results from the Siena poll released today.

The Senate race to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Mary Lou Rath is in a statistical dead heat, according to a poll out this morning.

The Siena College Research Institute poll shows former boxer Joe Mesi, a Democrat, leading Michael Ranzenhofer, a Republican county legislator, by 40 percent to 38 percent.

More interesting about this poll is the high number of undecideds.

Twenty-two percent of voters surveyed either don’t know who they support yet or have no opinion. With the poll’s margin of error at 4.6 percent, the poll shows the contest between the two candidates is very much in play.

Based on what I know about the Senate District, I would have expected Ranzenhofer to be a few points ahead. That said, Baby Joe was involved in a hotly contest primary, and was endorsed by Golisano’s Responsible New York PAC.

The high number of undecideds means the race can go either way. If Mesi wants to gain ground, he has to present himself as a moderate to conservative Democrat, and continue to play the outsider card.

Ranzenhofer as well, can play the outsider card, but he can also point his own record. Further, I would suggest he needs to discuss the dangers of potential one-party rule in New York State government — which I think is a huge issue. The last thing New York needs is a rubber stamp for liberal policies with no checks and balances. That is an argument that could very well resonate with independents and undecided voters.

There is, however, another factor that bodes well for Ranzenhofer.

“While this district has a small Republican enrollment edge and has long been represented by a Republican senator, more voters currently know and have a favorable view of Mesi. On more issues, however, they think that Ranzenhofer would do a better job. The race is close, and seems likely to stay that way,” said Steve Greenberg, a spokesman for the Siena poll.

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Chris Lee has just released a new television ad…

UPDATE: Kryzan responds with a lame-ass press release with the same old laughable Democrat talking points (via Buffalo Pundit).

The bottom line is that Alice Kryzan has said she’d let the Bush tax cuts expire. Letting those tax cuts (which lead to record economic growth in this country) expire would be an effective tax increase. And guess what? I ain’t a millionaire, and contrary to the talking points Buffalo Pundit is regurgitating, I got a nice tax cut thanks to President Bush. And you know what? I don’t want a tax increase.

Why does Alice Kryzan want to raise my taxes?

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Baby Joe Mesi, who “challenged” Mike Ranzenhofer to three debates over a week ago, is now apparently running away from debating Ranzenhofer, who had immediately accepted the challenge.

From the Ranzenhofer campaign:

Mike Ranzenhofer, Candidate for State Senate in the 61st Senate District, called out his November opponent for avoiding opportunities to debate the issues. Ranzenhofer immediately accepted four invitations to appear with Mesi to debate and is ready for any opportunity for voters to see the two candidates together.

Ranzenhofer is scheduled for WBEN Radio’s Hardline with Hardwick, R News Live Debate in Rochester, WBEN Radio’s Financial Guys Forum and the League of Women Voters in Clarence. Joe Mesi, however, has not committed to any of these invitations that were given more than two weeks ago.

“Joe Mesi has been hyped by Democrats as a great debater, but hasn’t accepted any of the invitations to debate in his own District.” challenged Ranzenhofer. “He is running away from the local issues. Just last week Mesi made time to speak to the press in New York City with downstate Democrats and to rally today in Rochester.”

“Voters understand that the stakes are too high to send politicians to Albany who are in need of on-the-job training,” said Ranzenhofer. “They deserve an opportunity to hear both candidates in forums sponsored by nonpartisan organizations.”

So where is Baby Joe running? I thought he was a fighter.

I guess despite all his talk about being a fighter, he really is just a lightweight.

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I was just alerted to a new poll, sponsored by the DCCC and EMILY’s List, that claims that Alice Kryzan has a 10-point lead over Chris Lee

A Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies poll of 400 likely voters shows that Alice Kryzan holds a 10-point lead over Republican candidate for Congress Chris Lee with 39 percent to 29 percent and 32 percent undecided. The poll, which was commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List, was conducted September 15-17 with a 4.9 percent margin of error. Attached is a polling memo from pollster Cornell Belcher.

“This poll shows that just 42 days before Election Day, Alice Kryzan is in good position to win,” said Carrie James, regional press secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “With a weakened economy, Chris Lee’s record of moving jobs to China just doesn’t sell in Western New York. Alice Kryzan has the independence and integrity to represent Western New York in Congress and this poll shows a clear path to victory.”

Now, there are so many things wrong with the poll it’s hard to know where to begin.

Well, let’s start with the obvious: The poll was conducted by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies which is a liberal group. Based on their own memo, they must know their methods are suspect, because they did not release the poll’s crosstabs and methodology. So, there are two key thing we do not know:

• The sample size of Republicans, Democrats and Independents.
• The wording and order of the exact questions asked.

The reason the sample size for each party affiliation is important is because in the 26th district, the Republican Party has an undeniable advantage. The district went 51-44 for Bush in 200, and 55-43 for Bush in 2004. The Republican Party has more registered voters than the Democratic Party in the district as well. I am willing to bet that the poll under-sampled Republicans significantly.

Some might argue that the political climate for Republicans is not considered to be great. That’s only partially true. I would argue the Democrats had a greater advantage in 2006, and Tom Reynolds still managed to win reelection.

Yes, this year Republicans did have a significant deficit on the generic congressional ballot… but that was only until recently:

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latestUSA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

If that’s the case in voters’ “generic ballot” then one could easily conclude that Chris Lee, already enjoying an advantage with party registration, would have an even bigger advantage as a result of that shift. That shift, of course, is largely attributed to a surge in enthusiasm amongst Republicans following John McCain’s selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Months prior to the Palin Effect, two nonpartisan groups had already seen a pro-Republican shift in the district.

And then we have to wonder why the memo did not release the exact wording and order of the questions asked in the poll. The idiolect of the memo from Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies is by no means objective. Which leads me to believe that the wording of the questions were not objective and crafted in such a way for the poll to achieve a desired result. In other words, this was likely a push poll.

Now it’s not surprising that several liberal bloggers in WNY are eating this poll up. Robert Harding at The Albany Project calls the poll exciting even though he usually takes such polls with a grain of salt.

Rochester Turning is not nearly as pumped by the poll, but believes it shows the race should be competitive.

But, neither asked the same questions about the poll as I have. Why not? Because the poll tells them what they want to hear, and that’s good enough to motivate them into thinking Kryzan can pull it off.

Considering all the money that was donated to Jon Powers’ failed campaign by the netroots, a poll like this is more useful as a fundraising tool for Alice Kryzan than as a legitimate snapshot of the state of the congressional race.

UPDATE: I have to say that I’m disappointed that friend Scott Leffler seems to take the poll at face value:

A 10 point lead has got to be nice for Kryzan. But 32 percent undecided in a Republican district has got to be a concern for her. Of course, she would only need slightly more than a third of the undecideds to win.

UPDATE: Roll Call has a story that backs up my assessment of the poll:

Republicans are sure to cry foul when they see the poll results. The Western New York district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats — as of March 1, there were 178,000 Republicans and 141,000 Democrats, while 121,000 voters were registered with minor parties or unaffiliated.

Yet the pollsters, while acknowledging that the district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats, said 33 percent of the voters surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 32 percent Republicans and 25 percent independents.

I also said that the poll was more likely a fundraising tool for Kryzan… this part seems to support that to:

Despite the district’s leanings, Democrats have been bullish about their chances of winning Reynolds’ seat. But the DCCC backed a candidate other than Kryzan — Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who remains on the general election ballot as the nominee of the Working Families Party — and Democrats have been scrambling to shore her up since her primary win. Through Aug. 20, Lee, who is personally wealthy, was sitting on $751,000 in his campaign account, while Kryzan had just $95,000.

And one can’t help laughing at the irony of the last paragraph of the story:

The DCCC began airing an ad in the district over the weekend accusing Lee of sending some of his company’s business to China. Ironically, in a clerical error in its Federal Election Commission filing for the independent expenditure, the DCCC said it was placing the ad on behalf of Powers.

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The DCCC (which has added Alice Kryzan to their Red To Blue program following Jon Powers’ defeat in the primary) is attacking Chris Lee in a new television ad that I just caught the other day.

The ad accuses Chris Lee of “employing labor in China.”

This, of course, is a blatant lie. No jobs form Chris Lee’s company were transferred overseas. The company expanded to international markets, but no jobs were lost here in Western New York, no jobs were ever exported to China. The company employees over 350 people in Western New York. If Alice Kryzan and the DCCC think it’s a bad thing that when a local company is successful enough to be able to compete internationally, then I think they are the ones who have some explaining to do.

After the ad came out, ECGOP Chairman Jim Domagalski issued a statement:

“Kryzan should be ashamed of herself for this blatant hypocrisy,” said Erie County Republican Chairman Jim Domagalski.  ”Kryzan needs to denounce these ads as a complete and utter distortion of Chris’s record as a successful business leader who has actually created good paying jobs here in Western New York.  I dare ask the question, how many jobs has Alice Kryzan created?

“Alice Kryzan has said that Washington insiders shouldn’t select the person Western New Yorkers are going to send to Congress. Alice Kryzan needs to stand up and denounce these negative attack ads and live by her promise to turn away this outside liberal, special interest help.”

If Alice Kryzan wants to make job creation an issue of this campaign, I think that’s a debate the Chris Lee campaign will want to have. Only one candidate in this race has a record of creating jobs in Western New York…

…and it ain’t Alice Kryzan.

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There’s certainly a lot of chatter about the latest Siena poll showing New York being in play for John McCain. All the talk has certainly increased enthusiasm not just for Republicans, but for Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats who support McCain/Palin:

The “Palin effect” has given the McCain campaign a lift in [New York State], putting it within reach, according to Edward Cox, McCain’s state campaign chief. 

“We are doing much better among women and Democrats,” Cox said during a visit to Republican headquarters downtown. “These are Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats.”

Cox pointed to a Siena College poll, released Monday, that found McCain trailed Obama by 5 percentage points, compared with an 8-point gap last month and 13 points in July.

Sarah Palin, McCain’s running mate, has electrified many undecided voters, including local “hockey moms,” campaign officials said.

But other polls report a wider gap, and Obama campaign spokesman Blake Zeff dismissed the prediction of a close race as wishful thinking.

The last Republican presidential candidate to win New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Cox’s prediction may help boost Republican turnout and energize campaign volunteers, who were disappointed at McCain’s lack of a public appearance when he visited Buffalo for a fundraiser in July.

But Cox fell short of pledging a serious campaign for the state. He wouldn’t predict that McCain will visit the area, and said the McCain campaign has no plans for a television advertising blitz in New York unless the poll gap narrows further.

Even voters from Democratic strongholds, however, are calling with support, drawn by the energy that Palin has brought to the ticket, local Republicans said.

“They don’t want McCain signs; they want McCain/Palin signs,” said Russ Gugino, regional campaign coordinator.

“There are an awful lot of hockey moms in Western New York who can relate to Gov. Palin,” said James Domagalski, chairman of the Erie County Republican Party.

This story reinforces my earlier point that it will have to take a number of other polls showing a tight race in New York to merit either John McCain investing money here to score an upset, or for Barack Obama doing the same in order to hold his ground.

Still, the local Republican committees in New York state have a huge opportunity with this surge of enthusiasm. They should be signing people up for massive Get Out The Vote efforts in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Recent polls show McCain is ahead in Ohio, but not comfortably ahead. We’ll undoubtedly need a good ground game there. While I’m not worried about Ohio, it is vital to McCain’s chances of victory.

But, what could really help McCain is a surge of his supporters getting out the vote in Pennsylvania, where polls are very close. If McCain wins in Pennsylvania, he wins the election.

New York, as far as the presidential election is concerned, isn’t important. The Real Clear Politics Average for the state shows there’s no justifiable reason for McCain to waste any resources here.

If the Republican committees in New York don’t take advantage of the surge of enthusiasm by building up a massive Election Day GOTV army to send to Ohio and Pennsylvania, than they are only helping Obama.

For the sake of the county, I hope they aren’t squandering that opportunity.

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Today, Mike Ranzenhofer, candidate for State Senate in the 61st Senate District, will announce his plan for cutting state spending 15% across the board.

Meanwhile, somewhere else, Baby Joe Mesi is working on another boxing/fighting metaphor for his campaign.

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Following up on my earlier report that a new poll has Obama’s lead in New York trimmed down to 5 points, Ed Cox, who heads John McCain’s New York campaign, believes the poll shows that New York State is very much in play.

The man who heads John McCain’s New York campaign says the Empire State has been very blue in the last four presidential elections with democratic candidates carrying the state by 15 to 30 percentage points.

Ed Cox says that’s about to change. He points to Barack Obama’s 18 point lead in a June Siena College poll that recently has dwindled to just more than two points. Cox calls it a sign New Yorkers are buying into McCain’s message.

 

“He’s a reformer, that he’s a maverick, he’s a real agent of change, he has the experience to protect and defend the people of this country in respect to national security affairs,” Cox explained. “John McCain, for all those reasons which came out at the convention and of course his nominating Governor Palin as his vice presidential candidate, all those things have put New York into play.”

Cox doesn’t believe Hillary Clinton’s influence will be enough for Obama to carry New York State. Cox says comments Clinton made during the primaries that Obama is not ready to be president will sway many of her supporters to vote for McCain.

Cox wouldn’t say if McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, would convince Hillary supporters to consider the republican ticket. Instead he goes back to the New York senator’s earlier statements on Obama lacking experience.

“A lot of her supporters are taking her at her word on that,” he said. “They’re taking a look at both candidates and they’re coming to John McCain’s banner. It’s very gratifying to see them coming over to support John McCain.” 

I’m still skeptical that New York really is in play, but it is obvious from multiple polls that Obama’s lead here has dropped significantly. This, while may not be enough to bring about a McCain victory here, does indicate a larger problem for Obama in actual battleground states, such as our  neighboring states Ohio and Pennsylvania. Personally, while it is nice to see the polls close here, I’d much rather see the New York State Republican Party concentrate their GOTV resources for the presidential race down in those states.

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Looks like Jack Davis has reached the end of the line for his latest congressional bid:

A State Supreme Court justice Thursday rejected congressional candidate Jack Davis’ attempt to remain on the November ballot, ending his third attempt to win the job.

Davis said Thursday he left a voice mail with Democratic primary winner Alice J. Kryzan to congratulate her on her victory but would not commit to helping her in her campaign against Republican Christopher J. Lee.

Davis said he would help Kryzan in the campaign if he thought she accepted his anti-free trade message but expressed his doubts. “I don’t think she understands my message,” he said.

Justice Richard M. Platkin of Albany disagreed with Davis’ contention that his petition to form a minor party line called Save Jobs and Farms should have been accepted even though he failed to file a certificate of acceptance on time, as required by state election law. 

Davis argued that the state Board of Elections should have provided him an opportunity to submit the late application anyway and that the board acted “arbitrarily and capriciously” in not allowing him to file. 

The judge ruled otherwise. 

Of course, while that settles that, we’re still waiting to hear what Jon Powers is planning to do.

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