New York State Going from Blue To Red?
by Matt at Sep 15th, 2008
A new poll by the Siena Research Institute shows New York is looking a lot more purple than blue, with Obama leading McCain 46-41… the poll has a MOE of +/- 3.9 points.
The race for the White House is a statistical dead heat, according to a new poll.
Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, leads Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee, 46 percent to 41 percent in a survey of 626 registered voters by the Siena Research Institute in upstate Loudonville. The survey, conducted last week, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
“Although New York has long been regarded as a ’safe’ state for Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said pollster Steven Greenberg. “The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”
Democrats have a 5:3 enrollment advantage in the state.
The poll also found that 47% of respondents say Sarah Palin is qualified to be president, while only 41% said she isn’t.
Things look well for Republicans on the state level as well.
In terms of state issues, people were evenly divided, 44 percent to 44 percent, on whether the State Senate should remain in Republican hands. The GOP majority is down to just two seats with Democrats making a strong push to take control of the legislature’s upper chamber for the first time in more than 40 years.
This is huge. If this poll is correct, New York is in play. If New York is in play, then this is really bad news for Barack Obama, as it is clear that as we get closer to the election, McCain is increasing his lead in battleground states, or is closing the gap.
Of course, this poll could merely be an outlier. Quite frankly, as encouraging as this poll is, I’d like to see a couple other new polls reflect the same competitiveness in the state before I start looking at New York as a battleground state. There have been polls that had Obama up by eight points, but most have given him a very solid lead.
UPDATE: Real Clear Politics Poll Average has Obama up by 15 points in New York. There has, however, been a significant jump for McCain in New York, and it is worth noting that prior to the poll from Siena Research Institute, the last poll is over a month old. The last poll from Siena had Obama up by 8. So, their polling has shown a similar tightening of the race as other polls have.
I have no doubt McCain is closing the gap in New York, but I need to see more polling that shows the race as tight as Siena has it before I’ll believe it is truly that close.
UPDATE: Russ Gugino, head of McCain’s campaign in Western New York reacts:
“I’m pleasantly surprised, but not too surprised,” says Russ Gugino, the head of McCain’s campaign in Western New York.
“I’m not worried,” says Betty Jean Grant, a local Obama organizer.
Not worried she says because she believes the new numbers reflect a post-convention bounce for McCain caused by his choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President.
“I think people who might be a little angry, frustrated, because Hillary (Cinton) did not make the choice for Vice President,” she says.
“These people are going to say at the end of the day ‘I’m going to do what’s best for my family, what’s best for my pocketbook, what’s best for me.’”
NBC Mews political analyst Chuck Todd tells Scott Brown that when looking at the new poll, it’s important to note that McCain didn’t pick up any new voters.
Todd says the race got a little closer only because some Obama voters moved into the undecided column after the Republican convention, and that’s to be expected Todd says.
Scott Brown: “Do you think McCain has any shot in New York, and do you think we’ll see him do any campaigning here?” Todd: “No, he’s got no shot in New York. It’s really tough when you look at where he’s got to do well in other parts of the country to spend the money that it would take to make New York competitive, it’s just not a wise investment.”
“We’re trying to get Sarah Palin here, we’re trying to get John McCain here,” says Russ Gugino.
I don’t think the poll is showing the effect of a post-convention bounce. I think it shows a gradual bleed of support away from Obama. Polls of the state have trended in that direction. Still there’s plenty of reason to doubt the race in New York is really within the margin of error.
