I’m still glowing after Sarah Palin’s tremendous victory in tonight’s VP debate, but I did want to chime in on the latest Siena Poll which confirmed my suspicions about their previous poll.  

The previous Siena Poll had the race in New York State a statistical tie. The new poll has Barack up 22 points.

Now the narrative behind this new poll is that Obama has “surged” in New York. But, truthfully, it was not a surge, the new poll mirrors Obama’s standing in the state as virtually every other poll of the state has shown.

UPDATE: Scott Leffler says I “finally admitted” that New York is not in play. Of course, I never said I really believed it was. After the previous Siena poll I specifically said, “I’d like to see a couple other new polls reflect the same competitiveness in the state before I start looking at New York as a battleground state,” and “still there’s plenty of reason to doubt the race in New York is really within the margin of error.”

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It’s pretty sad that the only way Barack Obama can attack John McCain is by linking him to President Bush… my friend Scott Leffler seems to think that a similar strategy would work in the 26th District by linking Chris Lee to Tom Reynolds, who many liberal bloggers in WNY despise, for whatever ridiculous reason they can come up with.

… I just found this web page that lists congressmen based on how well they stick up for the middle class. It says he’s at 50 percent for the year. And he’s gotten F’s on the previous four years they graded.    

Yup, that’s the Tom Reynolds I remember … stickin’ it to the middle class.

And he’s endorsed Chris Lee. I wonder if Lee thought about declining that endorsement? Doubt it. From what I can tell, Lee aspires to be just like Reynolds. He’s got the same campaign staff. And he doesn’t return my calls. Just. Like. Reynolds.

If I were advising the Dems, I’d tell them to make sure to link Lee to Reynolds just like Obama is linking McCain to Bush. After all, no one really believes that Reynolds isn’t running so he can spend time with his family. It’s cause he was afraid of getting his ass kicked.

And no one really believes Barack Obama is qualified to be President of the United States, but that’s not stopping millions from for him… But I digress.

What I don’t understand is why Scott was so quick to accept the assessment of the website TheMiddleClass.org as legitimate and objective. It’s easy for a blogger or even a member of the media to give credence to a poll, or a study, or an organization that tells them what they want to hear, while dismissing those that don’t.

The other day, Buffalo Pundit criticized Chris Lee’s latest ad for citing data from a conservative think tank, the Heritage Foundation. It’s fair argument to make, just as I have similarly questioned the sources Democrats use to support their claims, be it from liberal think tanks, research groups, etc. 

What Scott failed to do (or just chose not to do) was question the source. It would have taken all of 10 seconds to find out that TheMiddleClass.org is run by the Drum Major Institute, and that the Drum Major Institute is a liberal research group. Not bipartisan. Not nonpartisan. Liberal. 

Do I really need to say anything else?

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There’s certainly a lot of chatter about the latest Siena poll showing New York being in play for John McCain. All the talk has certainly increased enthusiasm not just for Republicans, but for Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats who support McCain/Palin:

The “Palin effect” has given the McCain campaign a lift in [New York State], putting it within reach, according to Edward Cox, McCain’s state campaign chief. 

“We are doing much better among women and Democrats,” Cox said during a visit to Republican headquarters downtown. “These are Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats.”

Cox pointed to a Siena College poll, released Monday, that found McCain trailed Obama by 5 percentage points, compared with an 8-point gap last month and 13 points in July.

Sarah Palin, McCain’s running mate, has electrified many undecided voters, including local “hockey moms,” campaign officials said.

But other polls report a wider gap, and Obama campaign spokesman Blake Zeff dismissed the prediction of a close race as wishful thinking.

The last Republican presidential candidate to win New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Cox’s prediction may help boost Republican turnout and energize campaign volunteers, who were disappointed at McCain’s lack of a public appearance when he visited Buffalo for a fundraiser in July.

But Cox fell short of pledging a serious campaign for the state. He wouldn’t predict that McCain will visit the area, and said the McCain campaign has no plans for a television advertising blitz in New York unless the poll gap narrows further.

Even voters from Democratic strongholds, however, are calling with support, drawn by the energy that Palin has brought to the ticket, local Republicans said.

“They don’t want McCain signs; they want McCain/Palin signs,” said Russ Gugino, regional campaign coordinator.

“There are an awful lot of hockey moms in Western New York who can relate to Gov. Palin,” said James Domagalski, chairman of the Erie County Republican Party.

This story reinforces my earlier point that it will have to take a number of other polls showing a tight race in New York to merit either John McCain investing money here to score an upset, or for Barack Obama doing the same in order to hold his ground.

Still, the local Republican committees in New York state have a huge opportunity with this surge of enthusiasm. They should be signing people up for massive Get Out The Vote efforts in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Recent polls show McCain is ahead in Ohio, but not comfortably ahead. We’ll undoubtedly need a good ground game there. While I’m not worried about Ohio, it is vital to McCain’s chances of victory.

But, what could really help McCain is a surge of his supporters getting out the vote in Pennsylvania, where polls are very close. If McCain wins in Pennsylvania, he wins the election.

New York, as far as the presidential election is concerned, isn’t important. The Real Clear Politics Average for the state shows there’s no justifiable reason for McCain to waste any resources here.

If the Republican committees in New York don’t take advantage of the surge of enthusiasm by building up a massive Election Day GOTV army to send to Ohio and Pennsylvania, than they are only helping Obama.

For the sake of the county, I hope they aren’t squandering that opportunity.

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Following up on my earlier report that a new poll has Obama’s lead in New York trimmed down to 5 points, Ed Cox, who heads John McCain’s New York campaign, believes the poll shows that New York State is very much in play.

The man who heads John McCain’s New York campaign says the Empire State has been very blue in the last four presidential elections with democratic candidates carrying the state by 15 to 30 percentage points.

Ed Cox says that’s about to change. He points to Barack Obama’s 18 point lead in a June Siena College poll that recently has dwindled to just more than two points. Cox calls it a sign New Yorkers are buying into McCain’s message.

 

“He’s a reformer, that he’s a maverick, he’s a real agent of change, he has the experience to protect and defend the people of this country in respect to national security affairs,” Cox explained. “John McCain, for all those reasons which came out at the convention and of course his nominating Governor Palin as his vice presidential candidate, all those things have put New York into play.”

Cox doesn’t believe Hillary Clinton’s influence will be enough for Obama to carry New York State. Cox says comments Clinton made during the primaries that Obama is not ready to be president will sway many of her supporters to vote for McCain.

Cox wouldn’t say if McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, would convince Hillary supporters to consider the republican ticket. Instead he goes back to the New York senator’s earlier statements on Obama lacking experience.

“A lot of her supporters are taking her at her word on that,” he said. “They’re taking a look at both candidates and they’re coming to John McCain’s banner. It’s very gratifying to see them coming over to support John McCain.” 

I’m still skeptical that New York really is in play, but it is obvious from multiple polls that Obama’s lead here has dropped significantly. This, while may not be enough to bring about a McCain victory here, does indicate a larger problem for Obama in actual battleground states, such as our  neighboring states Ohio and Pennsylvania. Personally, while it is nice to see the polls close here, I’d much rather see the New York State Republican Party concentrate their GOTV resources for the presidential race down in those states.

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Dr. James Campbell, chairman of the University at Buffalo’s political science department, weighs in on the race for the 26th district in an interview with the Tonawanda News:

Q: How do you think Kryzan will fare against Republican Christopher Lee in the general election?

A: I think it’s going to be a close race. This is a district that, in the past at least, has tilted toward Republican candidates. Given that, Lee has a head start with Democrats coming out of a divisive primary. Kryzan won the support of her party, but she got less than 50 percent of the vote so she’s got some work to do. You’d like to come out of your own party’s nomination with at least 60 percent of the party pulling the lever for you.

In my view, Chris Lee enters the race with the most advantages. Adding to his chances is the fact that the excitement generated by John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate has trickled down to congressional races, according to Gallup. Chris Lee already had the advantage in the Republican-leaning district, so Palin factor only increases his chances.

Dr. James Campbell also has a prediction for the presidential race:

Q: On to the presidential election, how do you think things will shake out between Barack Obama and John McCain?

A: The forecasting model I’ve been using since 1992 to predict the election is based on analysis of polls taken at different times during the campaign, trying to read them in historical context and how they’ve correlated with the vote since 1948. Mainly it uses the post-convention, early September Gallup poll and the second-quarter growth numbers for the economy. Together, those things provide a pretty good chance that McCain will get between 52 and 53 percent of the two-party popular vote.

Based on the state of the races, and the movement in national and state polls, I think this is a very good prediction. 

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Nancy Pelosi may be publicly supporting Charlie Rangel by saying she won’t ask him to step aside, but the New York Post says sources tell them that privately, Pelosi is urging Rangel to step aside.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yesterday privately pushed Rep. Charlie Rangel to give up his chairmanship of the influential House tax-rules committee amid explosive revelations that his personal tax filings were riddled with errors and omissions, a wellplaced source said.

[...]

One member of the New York congressional delegation who supported Pelosi’s decision said, “You have to have one standard - you can’t have one for [Republicans] and one for us.”

Rangel himself remained mum on his sitdown with Pelosi after exiting a later, separate meeting with fellow Democratic committee members.

“I am unable to say anything,” he said before bizarrely rattling off his name, rank and serial number from his Korean War days. “Do to me what you want, I’m not talking.”

The 76-year-old politician smiled when asked if he was still chairman of the powerful tax panel.

Pelosi later denied through spokesperson Nadeam Elshami that she has asked Rangel to step aside.

 If Pelosi doesn’t ask Rangel to step aside as chairman, then John McCain stands to benefit significantly, as he supports the fact that unlike his fellow Democrats, he’s willing to target corruption within his own party. As the Democrats’ presidential nominee, Barack Obama should have called for Rangel to step aside when the allegations first surfaced. But, he didn’t, thus missing his chance to match his rhetoric with actions. But then again, when your campaign is based on slogans over substance, what else were we to expect?

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A new poll by the Siena Research Institute shows New York is looking a lot more purple than blue, with Obama leading McCain 46-41… the poll has a MOE of +/- 3.9 points.

The race for the White House is a statistical dead heat, according to a new poll.

Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, leads Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee, 46 percent to 41 percent in a survey of 626 registered voters by the Siena Research Institute in upstate Loudonville. The survey, conducted last week, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ’safe’ state for Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said pollster Steven Greenberg. “The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

Democrats have a 5:3 enrollment advantage in the state.

The poll also found that 47% of respondents say Sarah Palin is qualified to be president, while only 41% said she isn’t.

Things look well for Republicans on the state level as well.

In terms of state issues, people were evenly divided, 44 percent to 44 percent, on whether the State Senate should remain in Republican hands. The GOP majority is down to just two seats with Democrats making a strong push to take control of the legislature’s upper chamber for the first time in more than 40 years.

This is huge. If this poll is correct, New York is in play. If New York is in play, then this is really bad news for Barack Obama, as it is clear that as we get closer to the election, McCain is increasing his lead in battleground states, or is closing the gap.

Of course, this poll could merely be an outlier. Quite frankly, as encouraging as this poll is, I’d like to see a couple other new polls reflect the same competitiveness in the state before I start looking at New York as a battleground state. There have been polls that had Obama up by eight points, but most have given him a very solid lead.

UPDATE: Real Clear Politics Poll Average has Obama up by 15 points in New York. There has, however, been a significant jump for McCain in New York, and it is worth noting that prior to the poll from Siena Research Institute, the last poll is over a month old.  The last poll from Siena had Obama up by 8. So, their polling has shown a similar tightening of the race as other polls have.

I have no doubt McCain is closing the gap in New York, but I need to see more polling that shows the race as tight as Siena has it before I’ll believe it is truly that close.

UPDATE: Russ Gugino, head of McCain’s campaign in Western New York reacts:

“I’m pleasantly surprised, but not too surprised,” says Russ Gugino, the head of McCain’s campaign in Western New York.

“I’m not worried,” says Betty Jean Grant, a local Obama organizer.

Not worried she says because she believes the new numbers reflect a post-convention bounce for McCain caused by his choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President.

“I think people who might be a little angry, frustrated, because Hillary (Cinton) did not make the choice for Vice President,” she says.

“These people are going to say at the end of the day ‘I’m going to do what’s best for my family, what’s best for my pocketbook, what’s best for me.’”

NBC Mews political analyst Chuck Todd tells Scott Brown that when looking at the new poll, it’s important to note that McCain didn’t pick up any new voters.

Todd says the race got a little closer only because some Obama voters moved into the undecided column after the Republican convention, and that’s to be expected Todd says.

Scott Brown: “Do you think McCain has any shot in New York, and do you think we’ll see him do any campaigning here?” Todd: “No, he’s got no shot in New York. It’s really tough when you look at where he’s got to do well in other parts of the country to spend the money that it would take to make New York competitive, it’s just not a wise investment.”

“We’re trying to get Sarah Palin here, we’re trying to get John McCain here,” says Russ Gugino.

I don’t think the poll is showing the effect of a post-convention bounce. I think it shows a gradual bleed of support away from Obama. Polls of the state have trended in that direction. Still there’s plenty of reason to doubt the race in New York is really within the margin of error.

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I have to admit, that I never really had a major problem with David Paterson since he became governor. Today, however, he has pissed me off beyond belief, by taking a page right out of the DNC playbook and playing the race card.

On Monday, Gov. David Paterson angered some state lawmakers by comparing them to vampires, calling them a bunch of “blood suckers.” On Tuesday, he raised eyebrows again, and tempers, by accusing the John McCain campaign of veiled racism.

At the Crain’s Business Forum this morning, Paterson drew attention to a phrase used numerous times by speakers at the Republican National Convention to describe Barack Obama’s leadership experience: community organizer.

“I think the Republican Party is too smart to call Barack Obama ‘black’ in a sense that it would be a negative. But you can take something about his life, which I noticed they did at the Republican Convention – a ‘community organizer.’ They kept saying it, they kept laughing,” he said.

Paterson referred to McCain’s running mate Sarah Palin who compared her work experience to Obama’s.

“So I suppose a small town mayor is sort of like a community organizer, except with real responsibilities,” she said at the convention.

Paterson sees the repeated use of the words “community organizer” as Republican code for “black”.

Sadly, this is the game Democrats want to play. Protect the Obamessiah by accusing his rivals who dare criticism his lack of experience.

How dare you, Mr. Paterson. How dare you! 

David Paterson has accused all Republicans of being racist. 

I am a proud supporter of John McCain. I am a proud conservative Republican. I will not be bullied into keeping legitimate criticisms of Barack Obama’s experience (or more accurately, lack of experience) quiet.

I may have long disagreed with Paterson on various issues, but I didn’t dislike him or consider him a political enemy. Until tonight.

David Paterson has proven to be as shameless as the rest of the Democratic Party. I thought he was above that.

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Russ Gugino, the McCain campaign’s coordinator for Western New York, believes “the buzz provided by Governor Palin’s addition to the Republican ticket may be enough to overcome Barack Obama’s eight point poll lead in New York State,” according to WNED.

I certainly agree that Sarah Palin changes the dynamic of the race. I certainly hope the enthusiasm she brings to the ticket closes the gap between Obama and McCain in this state, and, at the very least, forces Obama to use campaign resources to campaign here.

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Back in July, Ed Cox said John McCain could win New York.

A recent poll suggest there may be some truth to that, as Obama’s lead in this state has dipped by 10 points since June.

According to a poll released yesterday, the Democrat leads Senator McCain by 47% to 39%, a healthy advantage that has nevertheless deteriorated significantly over the course of the summer. The poll, conducted by the Siena Research Institute, also indicated that Governor Paterson’s “call to action” on the state’s budget crisis is resonating with voters. Nearly half of them describe New York’s fiscal condition as poor, yet the governor’s approval ratings are increasing.

Mr. Obama is currently eight points ahead of Mr. McCain in New York, down from a 13-point lead in July and an 18-point lead in June. The chairman of Mr. McCain’s New York campaign, Ed Cox, said that the Republican senator is making gains in the state largely because of his credibility on national security issues.

“For the presidency, this is going to be a national security election, and national security is a nonpartisan issue,” Mr. Cox said. “New York becomes a purple state and not a blue state.”

In many ways Barack Obama reminds me of Jon Powers. An unqualified candidate who pads his resume but still generates excitement amongst the party’s activist base. It looks like New Yorkers are starting to see that Obama isn’t measuring up to all the hype. I suspect the voters of the 26th District will also realize that there’s less to Jon Powers than meets the eye.

HAT TIP: Albany’s Insanity.

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Business First reports on his prediction:

Despite New York’s political reputation as Democratic stronghold, the head of Sen. John McCain’s Empire State presidential campaign team believes the Arizona Republican can win the state, including Upstate and Western New York.

Edward Cox, a partner in the New York law firm of Patterson Belknap Webb & Tylerand son-in-law of former President Nixon, made that prediction during a meeting at Business First.

Cox was in Buffalo to take part in a fund raiser for Christoper Lee, who is running for the suburban Republican congressional seat currently held by Rep. Tom Reynolds, who is retiring, and to meet with McCain supporters as prelude to the candidate’s scheduled July 21 day-long visit to the region.

Cox said when Sen. Barack Obama became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee in this year’s presidential race, edging out U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, that changed the race’s dynamics.

“New York is more in play now with Obama than it would have been with Mrs. Clinton,” Cox said. “Obama is much more of a mystery (to Buffalo).”

While many will probably write this off as wishful thinking, the story does note that Obama only has a mere 6-point lead in the polls for New York. The state could very well end up in play this year as voters learn more about Obama and his positions and recognize his total lack of experience and qualifications. Considering Obama’s resume is so thin that he has to embellish his own credentials, I can see things looking significantly better for McCain in November, not just in battleground states, but states normally considered safe for Democrat candidates, like New York.

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