An Opportunity for the New York GOP
by Matt at Sep 22nd, 2008
There’s certainly a lot of chatter about the latest Siena poll showing New York being in play for John McCain. All the talk has certainly increased enthusiasm not just for Republicans, but for Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats who support McCain/Palin:
The “Palin effect” has given the McCain campaign a lift in [New York State], putting it within reach, according to Edward Cox, McCain’s state campaign chief.
“We are doing much better among women and Democrats,” Cox said during a visit to Republican headquarters downtown. “These are Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats.”
Cox pointed to a Siena College poll, released Monday, that found McCain trailed Obama by 5 percentage points, compared with an 8-point gap last month and 13 points in July.
Sarah Palin, McCain’s running mate, has electrified many undecided voters, including local “hockey moms,” campaign officials said.
But other polls report a wider gap, and Obama campaign spokesman Blake Zeff dismissed the prediction of a close race as wishful thinking.
The last Republican presidential candidate to win New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Cox’s prediction may help boost Republican turnout and energize campaign volunteers, who were disappointed at McCain’s lack of a public appearance when he visited Buffalo for a fundraiser in July.
But Cox fell short of pledging a serious campaign for the state. He wouldn’t predict that McCain will visit the area, and said the McCain campaign has no plans for a television advertising blitz in New York unless the poll gap narrows further.
Even voters from Democratic strongholds, however, are calling with support, drawn by the energy that Palin has brought to the ticket, local Republicans said.
“They don’t want McCain signs; they want McCain/Palin signs,” said Russ Gugino, regional campaign coordinator.
“There are an awful lot of hockey moms in Western New York who can relate to Gov. Palin,” said James Domagalski, chairman of the Erie County Republican Party.
This story reinforces my earlier point that it will have to take a number of other polls showing a tight race in New York to merit either John McCain investing money here to score an upset, or for Barack Obama doing the same in order to hold his ground.
Still, the local Republican committees in New York state have a huge opportunity with this surge of enthusiasm. They should be signing people up for massive Get Out The Vote efforts in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Recent polls show McCain is ahead in Ohio, but not comfortably ahead. We’ll undoubtedly need a good ground game there. While I’m not worried about Ohio, it is vital to McCain’s chances of victory.
But, what could really help McCain is a surge of his supporters getting out the vote in Pennsylvania, where polls are very close. If McCain wins in Pennsylvania, he wins the election.
New York, as far as the presidential election is concerned, isn’t important. The Real Clear Politics Average for the state shows there’s no justifiable reason for McCain to waste any resources here.
If the Republican committees in New York don’t take advantage of the surge of enthusiasm by building up a massive Election Day GOTV army to send to Ohio and Pennsylvania, than they are only helping Obama.
For the sake of the county, I hope they aren’t squandering that opportunity.
Totally agree. There is simply no way McCain can win this state, no matter what the polls say right now. Unfortunately, this is a blue state and when election day arrives, the base will go home.
What’s important right now, is for McCain to put all his energy into Ohio. Polls there indicate its a close election, and blue collar Democrats clearly still have reservations about Obama and his marxist policies.
However, the true test will be how McCain handles the financial meltdown. He clearly had missteps last week, and it’s time he went on the offensive against Barack and highlight not only Barack’s ties to Fannie and Freddie, the reason for our financial mess, but the ignorance of Obama’s anti-growth tax and spend policies.
McCain’s continued quest to blame the whole meltdown on corrupt Wall Street bankers will do nothing to win him points with Democrats, Independents or his Republican base-which will be vital to him winning in the battleground states.
-JBurke
http://www.TheFrontlineCoalition.com