SD-61: Siena Poll Shows Tight Race
by Matt at Sep 24th, 2008
Interesting results from the Siena poll released today.
The Senate race to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Mary Lou Rath is in a statistical dead heat, according to a poll out this morning.
The Siena College Research Institute poll shows former boxer Joe Mesi, a Democrat, leading Michael Ranzenhofer, a Republican county legislator, by 40 percent to 38 percent.
More interesting about this poll is the high number of undecideds.
Twenty-two percent of voters surveyed either don’t know who they support yet or have no opinion. With the poll’s margin of error at 4.6 percent, the poll shows the contest between the two candidates is very much in play.
Based on what I know about the Senate District, I would have expected Ranzenhofer to be a few points ahead. That said, Baby Joe was involved in a hotly contest primary, and was endorsed by Golisano’s Responsible New York PAC.
The high number of undecideds means the race can go either way. If Mesi wants to gain ground, he has to present himself as a moderate to conservative Democrat, and continue to play the outsider card.
Ranzenhofer as well, can play the outsider card, but he can also point his own record. Further, I would suggest he needs to discuss the dangers of potential one-party rule in New York State government — which I think is a huge issue. The last thing New York needs is a rubber stamp for liberal policies with no checks and balances. That is an argument that could very well resonate with independents and undecided voters.
There is, however, another factor that bodes well for Ranzenhofer.
“While this district has a small Republican enrollment edge and has long been represented by a Republican senator, more voters currently know and have a favorable view of Mesi. On more issues, however, they think that Ranzenhofer would do a better job. The race is close, and seems likely to stay that way,” said Steve Greenberg, a spokesman for the Siena poll.