I was just alerted to a new poll, sponsored by the DCCC and EMILY’s List, that claims that Alice Kryzan has a 10-point lead over Chris Lee

A Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies poll of 400 likely voters shows that Alice Kryzan holds a 10-point lead over Republican candidate for Congress Chris Lee with 39 percent to 29 percent and 32 percent undecided. The poll, which was commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List, was conducted September 15-17 with a 4.9 percent margin of error. Attached is a polling memo from pollster Cornell Belcher.

“This poll shows that just 42 days before Election Day, Alice Kryzan is in good position to win,” said Carrie James, regional press secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “With a weakened economy, Chris Lee’s record of moving jobs to China just doesn’t sell in Western New York. Alice Kryzan has the independence and integrity to represent Western New York in Congress and this poll shows a clear path to victory.”

Now, there are so many things wrong with the poll it’s hard to know where to begin.

Well, let’s start with the obvious: The poll was conducted by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies which is a liberal group. Based on their own memo, they must know their methods are suspect, because they did not release the poll’s crosstabs and methodology. So, there are two key thing we do not know:

• The sample size of Republicans, Democrats and Independents.
• The wording and order of the exact questions asked.

The reason the sample size for each party affiliation is important is because in the 26th district, the Republican Party has an undeniable advantage. The district went 51-44 for Bush in 200, and 55-43 for Bush in 2004. The Republican Party has more registered voters than the Democratic Party in the district as well. I am willing to bet that the poll under-sampled Republicans significantly.

Some might argue that the political climate for Republicans is not considered to be great. That’s only partially true. I would argue the Democrats had a greater advantage in 2006, and Tom Reynolds still managed to win reelection.

Yes, this year Republicans did have a significant deficit on the generic congressional ballot… but that was only until recently:

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latestUSA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

If that’s the case in voters’ “generic ballot” then one could easily conclude that Chris Lee, already enjoying an advantage with party registration, would have an even bigger advantage as a result of that shift. That shift, of course, is largely attributed to a surge in enthusiasm amongst Republicans following John McCain’s selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Months prior to the Palin Effect, two nonpartisan groups had already seen a pro-Republican shift in the district.

And then we have to wonder why the memo did not release the exact wording and order of the questions asked in the poll. The idiolect of the memo from Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies is by no means objective. Which leads me to believe that the wording of the questions were not objective and crafted in such a way for the poll to achieve a desired result. In other words, this was likely a push poll.

Now it’s not surprising that several liberal bloggers in WNY are eating this poll up. Robert Harding at The Albany Project calls the poll exciting even though he usually takes such polls with a grain of salt.

Rochester Turning is not nearly as pumped by the poll, but believes it shows the race should be competitive.

But, neither asked the same questions about the poll as I have. Why not? Because the poll tells them what they want to hear, and that’s good enough to motivate them into thinking Kryzan can pull it off.

Considering all the money that was donated to Jon Powers’ failed campaign by the netroots, a poll like this is more useful as a fundraising tool for Alice Kryzan than as a legitimate snapshot of the state of the congressional race.

UPDATE: I have to say that I’m disappointed that friend Scott Leffler seems to take the poll at face value:

A 10 point lead has got to be nice for Kryzan. But 32 percent undecided in a Republican district has got to be a concern for her. Of course, she would only need slightly more than a third of the undecideds to win.

UPDATE: Roll Call has a story that backs up my assessment of the poll:

Republicans are sure to cry foul when they see the poll results. The Western New York district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats — as of March 1, there were 178,000 Republicans and 141,000 Democrats, while 121,000 voters were registered with minor parties or unaffiliated.

Yet the pollsters, while acknowledging that the district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats, said 33 percent of the voters surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 32 percent Republicans and 25 percent independents.

I also said that the poll was more likely a fundraising tool for Kryzan… this part seems to support that to:

Despite the district’s leanings, Democrats have been bullish about their chances of winning Reynolds’ seat. But the DCCC backed a candidate other than Kryzan — Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who remains on the general election ballot as the nominee of the Working Families Party — and Democrats have been scrambling to shore her up since her primary win. Through Aug. 20, Lee, who is personally wealthy, was sitting on $751,000 in his campaign account, while Kryzan had just $95,000.

And one can’t help laughing at the irony of the last paragraph of the story:

The DCCC began airing an ad in the district over the weekend accusing Lee of sending some of his company’s business to China. Ironically, in a clerical error in its Federal Election Commission filing for the independent expenditure, the DCCC said it was placing the ad on behalf of Powers.

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Buffalo 14228 makes this weak argument against Mike Ranzenhofer:

He’ll do what Mary Lou Rath, the current Republican state senator for 14 years, was unable or unwilling to do…get something done. No sense going through the list of all the previous ineffectve Republican predecessors. All you need to know is that the State Senate has been controlled by Ranzenhofer’s Republican Party for the last 75 years. Electing him won’t correct what amounts to a Republican institutional problem.

The fallacy of this argument is that the New York state government is by no means a Republican institution. If Republicans lose control of the state senate, then the Democrats will have control of the Assembly, the Senate, and the governorship. That, my friends, would mean the Democrats would have an unfettered rubber stamp to impose more regulations and higher taxes, which ultimately leads to driving out the population and driving out businesses. You don’t have to take my word for it… it’s happening right now in Massachusetts.

If that’s what the netroots want, then by all means they can vote for Baby Joe. But, I think this state deserves better than a dysfunctional one-party government.

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With the golden boy of the left-wing bloggers defeated, the netroots of Western New York are now trying to drum up enthusiasm for Alice Kryzan.

For those Democrats who might be upset that Powers or Jack Davis didn’t win, let’s look at the other option: Chris Lee. In today’s Buffalo News, Lee gave us a lot of fodder. He said he supports the Bush tax cuts, which doesn’t surprise us as Lee is a millionaire and has received the tax breaks while the rest of Western New York’s middle class has picked up the slack for him. He also said that while he supports a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, he believes the timetable should be made by the military and not the politicians (even though it is the politicians who will need to set such a timetable). Lee also supports the same free trade practices that have hurt Western New York and shipped many of our jobs out of state or out of the country.

Okay, this is fairly standard Democrat talking points here. First, what Harding doesn’t see to understand is that Bush’s tax cuts took many lower income families off the tax rolls all together. Second, it was the Bush tax cuts that helped bring our economy out of recession and into a period of record breaking economic growth. Recycle these old ant-tax cut talking points even when they’ve been proven wrong repeatedly doesn’t exactly help your credibility.

Harding also ignores the positive impact of free trade on our economy while ignoring what really hurts it. Our economy, while currently struggle has staved off a recession, in part because of trade. Erecting economic barriers to international trade would most certainly worsen the problem, not make it better. As I’ve noted in the past, the raising of tariffs during the Great Depression did just that.

That’s just the facts.

Harding continues with a classic liberal straw man argument, blaming Tom Reynolds for everything he believes is wrong with the district:

So, as a Democrat, you have to ask yourself: Do you want two more years of Republican representation that has done nothing for NY-26? Do you want another representative in the mold of (and endorsed by) Tom Reynolds? If not, the only option is to vote for Alice Kryzan. If you want to continue the abysmal Republican leadership here in NY-26, you will vote for Chris Lee. It’s that simple.

Harding may not like Tom Reynolds or the Republican Party, but that’s no reason to claim that he’s poorly represented the district or should be blamed for all the things Harding sees as wrong. The fact is, the local economy in Western New York is largely affected by local/state government. Western New York’s economy is being slowly suffocated by overregulation and overtaxation. And since the Democratic Party pretty much runs the state, Harding out to be directing blame towards his own party… but instead finds it more politically convenient to blame Reynolds, in the hopes that his readers will just swallow it up and repeat it.

But, facts are facts. And the liberal netroots will eventually figure out that if pointing fingers erroneously at Tom Reynolds is the best way they can drum up enthusiasm for Alice Kryzan,

It’s clear from Harding’s post that he thinks economic issues will be a big factor in the race for the 26th District. Well, then they out to start writing their concession speeches now. When it comes time to vote in November, who does he think voters will trust on economic issues? A successful businessman who understands what’s best for business, or a liberal trial lawyer who stands for the the same old overregulation and overtaxation that has kept Western New York’s economy down?

My money is on the successful businessman. 

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Rochester Turning reportedly heard that meetings will be held today on whether or not Powers will continue his campaign, and appears to be concerned that Powers might continue his campaign, since he’ll be on the ballot in November.

Now it is about practicality. The DCCC just pulled support from Powers. The WFP party of NY supports Alice Kryzan even though Powers is on the ballot. Powers failed to win the large populous counties. He still is smarting from Jack Davis’ negative attacks. There is this solid post from swingstate project (which gave me the WFP link above). On the positive side, Powers has a bunch of money in the bank.

Even thinking about running on the WFP party is quite similar to Jack Davis attempting to form his own party just in case he lost the election. Is this, any party in a political storm? I should think not.

I believe the netroots has little to worry about. I don’t see Jon Powers moving forward with his campaign at this point.  If he has any desire for a future in WNY politics, he should concede, and move on with his life. I don’t see Powers actively campaign for Kryzan if he does end his campaign. What he really needs now is a new job so he can pay his rent.

Kryzan of course, is now starting to get the attention of various left wing groups.

But Democrats moved quickly to hail her victory, and the DCCC on Wednesday added Kryzan to its “Red to Blue” program for promising candidates running for Republican-held seats. She may also soon be endorsed by EMILY’s List, a Democratic fundraising powerhouse that supports abortion rights.

Something tells me that EMILY’s List isn’t exactly going to be extraordinarily helpful to Kryzan in the 26th District. Her association with Planned Parenthood certainly won’t resonate well with the voters of a Republican-leaning district. Of course, I don’t see abortion being a big issue in this particular campaign, but there are other issues that will be, and she’s on wrong side of them.

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There’s certainly a lot to talk about following the results of Tuesday night’s primary. I’m only going to talk about two things.

First, Sam Hoyt. Are you freaking kidding me!?!? Really, are you freaking kidding me?

Okay, now, I’ve got to talk about NY-26.

Alice Kryzan won. Jon Powers lost.

Rochester Turning asks what happened? I’m gonna give my thoughts and answer the question.

Anyone would agree this campaign was Jon Powers’ to lose, and he lost it big time. He had the support of local party leaders. He had the support of the unions. He had the support of the netroots and the Democrat establishment in Washington. He should have won easily.

But, instead, Jon Powers got sucked into a brutal battle with Jack Davis. They hit each other constantly with negatives ads, leaving Alice Kryzan on the sidelines. Powers and Davis thought the race was between the two them. To a degree that is still true.

I don’t think Alice Kryzan won as much as Jon Powers (and I suppose Jack Davis) lost.

Alice Kryzan did run an incredibly effective ad. Personally, I thought she ran it too late in the campaign to move the race enough in her favor to win. One cannot ignore the significance of the Democrats of NY-26 rejecting the candidate their party leaders chose for them. They not only rejected the recommendation of their party leaders, but they rejected the netroots candidate. Powers touted his so-called grassroots campaign… but clearly it helps to have a grassroots campaign in your own district and not in Washington D.C. and everyone else but your own district.

Politico notes that the Democrat establishment had banked on Powers winning, and Kryzan’s upset victory certainly casts more doubt on the Democrats being able to win the seat.

But, there’s a potential wrench to be thrown in this race by Jon Powers. He did receive the endorsement of the Working Families Party, and is guaranteed a spot on the ballot in November on the Working Families Party line.

The question is, will he continue his campaign until November or not?

According to Monroe Rising, Jon Powers refused to concede, even when the outcome of the race was pretty much settled. What does that mean? We’ll have to wait and see. As of this post, Chris Lee has issued a congratulatory statement to Alice Kryzan. Lee said, “I want to congratulate Alice Kryzan on succeeding in the Democratic primary and invite Alice to join me in discussing the real issues that are important to Western New York.”

Alice Kryzan has emailed her supporters with her declaration of victory. “I am honored that the Democrats of this District have chosen me to represent them in the upcoming general election to be their next representative in Congress.”

I didn’t expect to hear from Davis, but the silence from Jon Powers is deafening. I suspect he is, at this very moment, deciding whether to pack it in, or to fight on as the Working Families Party candidate.

The news of Kryzan’s upset victory has caught some national attention from Politico:

Without their favored candidate, Democrats are a little more circumspect of their chances of picking up this Rochester and Buffalo-area district in November. Even though New York has become a reliable Democratic stronghold, this is one of the most solid GOP districts in the Empire State, giving President Bush 55 percent of the vote in 2004. 

Well, it’s past 1:00 AM and I have to go to work in the morning, so I’ll post this now and give more thoughts on the results of this race and a number of others…I assume I’ll also get to react to Powers’ decision to either continue his campaign  on the WFP line or to start looking for a new job.

In any case, congrats to Alice Kryzan. She’s going to lose in November, but I can’t help appreciating the upset victory she achieved tonight.

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…according to left-wing blog, Rochester Turning.

Something unfortunate has happened: the two Democratic frontrunners to be the candidate for the 26th congressional district (Jon Powers and Jack Davis) have succeeded in beating up each other rather than beating up the Republican candidate, Chris Lee. I am afraid- and this is my own personal opinion, so take it for what it’s worth- that the primary campaign has gotten so negative, that neither of them will be able to win the district this November.

You know, Democrats like to say they’re the ones who want to talk about issues. Well, the Democrats of this race have dominated this election, not with issues, but with attacks.  It doesn’t matter who started it. They both continued it.  And now, i’ve heard, Alice Kryzan has decided to jump into the fray and attack her opponents, quite directly, with a new ad.

When a member of the liberal netroots is willing to concede that the Democrats chances to take the 26th district are lost, then I think that says a lot.

So, while the Democrats in the race put personal attacks before the issues, I call on my liberal blogger friends to put party loyalty aside and give a serious look at Chris Lee. Look at his experience. Look at his vision. If you can put the country and the 26th district before your party, you will see that Chris Lee is the right person to send to Congress.

The race for the 26th district doesn’t have to be about party loyalty. It should be about sending the right person to Congress. I’m new to Western New York. I came from a state that is being crippled by loyalty to a party that has driven out the population and businesses. I left a state of increased taxes, not increased opportunity. I’ve come to a state being crippled by overregulation, high taxes, a corrupt political establishment. and ridiculously powerful unions.

Jon Powers isn’t going to put the district before party loyalty. He’s got the endorsement of local Democrat party leaders and the unions that have been a part of the problem. He’s already got the support of the Democrats in Washington, salivating over the idea of a new yes-man to join their ranks.

Jack Davis is as bad a Democrat as he was a Republican. He sees this race as being about him. He truly is his own special interest.  But, the attacks he’s engaged in with Jon Powers, and now Alice Kryzan, have shown that personal ambition trumps the issues and concerns of the voters.

I may be new to the area, but I see there is hope for Western New York. Just as Chris Collins has been able deliver real reform as Eric Country Executive, Chris Lee can deliver real reform in Congress. 

If all is lost for the Democrats in NY-26, it’s time to get on board with Chris Lee.

UPDATE: Here’s Alice Kryzan’s latest ad.

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Jerry Zremski of the Buffalo News has an article today about how Jon Powers has raised a decent amount of money from left-wing fundraising powerhouses, but not so much from the people he wants to represent in Congress… something I’ve been noting for quite a while now.

Jon Powers would be the next congressman from the 26th District if the “netroots” were doing the voting.

The Iraq War veteran and former substitute teacher has raised $322,452 through ActBlue, a Web site that bills itself as “the online clearinghouse for Democratic action,” while winning the praise of bloggers from Buffalo to the Beltway.

“He’s the model of a modern patriot,” wrote Jake McIntyre, a Buffalo native and Washington labor lawyer who blogs under the name “Trapper John” on Daily Kos, one of the most popular progressive blogs.

Meanwhile, liberal bloggers have dismissed one of Powers’ Democratic primary opponents as “Crazy Jack Davis” and largely ignored the other, local attorney Alice Kryzan.

But there’s a downside to Powers’ prolonged courtship of the netroots. It’s the reason he raised nearly twice as much money from New York City as he has from the Buffalo area, a fact that allows his opponents to charge that the 26th District might not be foremost in his mind if Powers makes his way to Washington.

“Jon Powers is campaigning the same way he’ll govern; from outside New York and inside the pockets of the special interests,” said Joy Langley, a spokesman for Davis, the millionaire industrialist who’s paying for his third congressional race with his own money.

The story goes on to detail how Powers courted left-wing activists prior to his congressional run.

An interesting point raised by Zremski is that Alice Kryzan the “other” Democrat candidate in NY-26, “out-raised Powers by more than $30,000 in the Buffalo area.” WROC-TV noted last week that in an otherwise bitter Democratic primary, riddled with scandals and nastiness, Kryzan has remained quite unscathed. She might not be making headlines, but her out-fundraising Jon Powers should concern his campaign. The bloody battle between Davis and Powers could prove to be quite beneficial to Kryzan. 

Perhaps the funniest part of the article came at the end, where it said Powers “vowed not to be swayed by such campaign donations or by the bloggers who’ve become his defenders.”

Yeah, let’s see. Since Jon Powers has had congressional ambitions, he’s been increasingly seeking the support of cash from left-wing activists, and his pursuit of that cash has gone hand-in-hand with an undeniable leftward shift on the issues, including abortion, free trade, even Iraq. So, despite evidence to the contrary, Powers told Zremski, “I’m going to be representing the people of Western New York.” 

Powers seems to be confusing Western New York with the Daily Kos and Huffington Post.

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I missed this story from earlier in the week, but apparently my former Senator, John “I was in Vietnam” Kerry, blogged at Daily Kos on Wednesday, calling on the Kossacks to support Jon Powers.

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It wasn’t too long ago that I reported that Jon Powers was selected by the Daily Kos to be a part of their “Orange To Blue” program… which basically opened up the Jon Powers’ campaign coffers to even more cashfrom left-wing activists from outside of the 26th District. 

Well, it appears that the Daily Kos community came through for Jon Powers, who was so thankful for their cash he blogged his words of praise there yesterday:

Yesterday, the Dailykos community really came through for our campaign. Early in the morning, the editorial staff challenged the readership to secure 200 donations for the Powers for Congress and Annette Taddeo’s campaign.

Throughout the day, repeated posts were front paged giving us updates and encouraging people to join in. Then, my friend, John Kerry, honored us by posting a diary of his own in support of our race in Western New York.

Powers also revealed that his campaign will soon be airing a television ad:

We will be reporting in to you about our campaign and debuting our TV ads very soon.

I just wanted to stop by and say, thank you, DailyKos. Your support means a great deal to us.

Considering how much of his campaign cash comes from those out-of-state left-wingers, I imagine the support he gets from them means a lot more to him than whatever support he has that is actually in his district.

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Looks like Jon Powers has earned the praise of the premier left-wing blog, The Daily Kos (of “screw ‘em fame), and was selected to be a part of their so-called “Orange To Blue” program. Power himself blogged at Daily Kos, thanking them for opening up another channel for him to raise money from liberal activists who don’t live in his district or state.

First of all, I want to say thank you to Markos and the Daily Kos community for selecting our campaign to be part of their Orange to Blue program. We are honored to be chosen and happy to be part of this community.

It’s nice to know Powers considers himself part of the Daily Kos community. He seems more at home there than in the 26th congressional district.

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Over the past few weeks, a few of us have been calling attention to the fact that a large portion of Jon Powers‘ campaign cash is coming from everywhere but within his district or his state… and it appears Powers is trying to cover up the truth about who’s funding his campaign: 

Powers said he was a teacher and a soldier, and not a millionaire. He said his campaign relies on donations, and he has raised about $900,000 so far. About 80 percent of his donors give less than $100, and 67 percent give less than $50. Powers said the donors were everyday Western New Yorkers.

Perhaps he meant “everyone but Western New Yorkers” not “everyday Western New Yorkers.” Or maybe he thinks strip-club owners like Rick Snowden are everyday Western New Yorkers?

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Jon Powers guest blogged on the left-wing Daily Kos blog yesterday, thanking them for their support and appealing for more cash.

In addition to his latest appeal for money from outside of his district, Rochester Turning and The Albany Project both note that Jon Powers made the ActBlue top ten this week. ActBlue is another left-wing fundraising website.

Powers likes to tout the “strong grassroots support” for his campaign, but it has become increasingly clear that what he’s calling “grassroots support” is really netroots support from left-wing activists who don’t live in the 26th district, or even New York State.

How exactly does Jon Powers expect to represent the 26th district when so much of his campaign cash comes from liberal activists whose values don’t represent those of the district?

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