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A new Siena poll shows some interesting shifts in some State Senate races. First, in the 58th Senate District Bill Stachowski has retaken the lead over Dennis Delano.

Stachowski now has a 47-43 percent lead over Delano, after trailing 49-36 percent in the previous Siena poll in this district where Democrats have a better than two-to-one enrollment edge. Stachowski has increased his lead among Democrats to 62-30 percent (up from 51-34 percent). Delano maintains a 63-25 percent lead among Republicans (virtually unchanged from 64-23 percent) and has seen his lead among independent voters fall to 54-36 percent, down from 67-19 percent. 

It is clear that Stachowski’s smear campaign against Delano has had an impact.

Also, it appears that in the 61st Senate District Baby Joe Mesi’s boxing metaphors aren’t enough cover for his lack of understanding of the issues:

Ranzenhofer has a 47-42 percent lead over Mesi, who had a slimmer 40-38 percent lead in the previous Siena poll, in this district where Republicans have a very small enrollment edge over Democrats. Ranzenhofer leads among Republicans 69-25 percent, up from 59-21 percent. Mesi leads among Democrats 62-29 percent, closer than the previous 63-19 percent. Mesi leads among independent voters 42-37 percent, although Ranzenhofer closed the gap from 43-28 percent. 

Looks the people of the 61st Senate District are seeing that Baby Joe is indeed “out of his element at this point in his political development.”

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New York State is already over-taxed, over-regulated, and being run into the ground by Democrats at all levels of state government. This article explains what is at stake in the 61st State Senate District election:

There’s no shortage of big, important political races this fall, but it’s hard to imagine a local contest where the choices are as clear and the implications as serious.

Voters in the largely suburban and rural, and mostly Republican, 61st State Senate District may very well decide the power structure of New York State politics.

In doing so, they will choose between a veteran Republican lawmaker with staunchly conservative credentials and a Democratic newcomer with ties to some of his party’s most liberal allies.

New York State cannot afford one-party rule. It is ruining Massachusetts as we speak… Let’s not make the same mistake.

Even the left-leaning Buffalo News recognizes that Baby Joe Mesi is “out of his element.”

61st District: Michael H. Ranzenhofer. Erie County Legislator Michael H. Ranzenhofer is the easy endorsement in this race to succeed the retiring Mary Lou Rath. Republican Ranzenhofer is well informed about the issues and understands the challenges facing residents of the nation’s highest-taxed state.

The Democrat in this race is boxer-turned-politician Joe Mesi, an instantly likable man who, despite his best efforts and good coaching, is out of his element at this point in his political development.

Vote Ranzenhofer.

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Listening to Mike Ranzenhofer and Baby Joe Mesi on WBEN with Kevin Hardwick… and it is quite clear why Baby Joe had previously been avoiding debating Ranzenhofer. While Mike is demonstrating a clear understanding of the issues and is giving definitive answers, Baby Joe is giving more wishy-washy answers about “looking into” this or “being open to” that. Baby Joe can’t commit to a tough position on an issue. Sad.

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It’s kind of funny how similar Jon Powers and Baby Joe Mesi are. Both have shady dealing with their respective charities. Jon Powers’ failed charity, War Kids Relief, according to disclosure forms, lined his wallet a lot better than it helped Iraqi children, and Joe Mesi’s Organ Donation Foundation similarly was more profitable for his family members than for the cause.

Another trait they share is they both have attracted a lot of political contributions from outside the districts they want (or wanted) to represent. The Buffalo News has a story revealing where Baby Joe’s political donations are coming from.

If all politics is local, Democrat Joe Mesi had some problems during the most recent fundraising period for his State Senate campaign.

Only $350 out of $140,000 he raised during a recent 14-day stretch came from voters or business interests from within the 61st Senate District — a showing his opponent, Republican Michael Ranzenhofer, immediately seized upon Monday.

“It’s kind of astonishing to see such a huge amount of money coming from outside the area,” said Ranzenhofer, an Erie County legislator who is locked in a battle with Mesi, a former boxer, for the seat being vacated by retiring State Sen. Mary Lou Rath, a Williamsville Republican.

Mesi was unavailable for an interview, but a campaign official said that since campaign efforts began earlier this year, Mesi has gotten donations from more than 350 local sources.

Russ Thompson at Albany’s Insanity made the following point:

Well apparently the people in the district don’t support or think Mesi has a chance of winning. If they did he would be pulling in more. What does bother me is the donations from New York City… Our biggest problem IS NY City influence and now we see it in the Mesi campaign? Independent my a$$…

He makes a good point. Russ also says that “Everyone should be worried when down state politicians and interests want to buy off any legislator and especially a candidate.” I agree. How can Baby Joe say he’ll fight for Western New York when they’re not the ones pushing him into the ring.

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A Siena poll released today shows good news for Dennis Delano (SD-61) and Dale Volker (SD-59).

First, here’s what the poll says about the 61st Senate District race:

In a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one, Delano holds a 49-36 percent lead over Stachowski. While Stachowski has the support of only about half of Democrats, Delano gets nearly two-thirds of Republicans and more than two-thirds of independent voters. Delano leads with men and women, with every age group and religion, and in every region of the district.

Stachowski is viewed favorably by 39 percent of voters and unfavorably by 14 percent, with 47 percent having no opinion. Delano has a 63-15 percent favorable rating, with only 23 percent having no opinion. Delano‟s favorable rating is 59 percent with Democrats – significantly higher than Stachowski‟s 44 percent – and at least 61 percent in every region of the district.

And here’s what Siena says about the 59th Senate District race:

Volker has a significant 17-point, 50-33 percent, lead over Konst. Volker has the support of two-thirds of Republicans, leading 67-25 percent, while Konst only wins among Democrats 51-33 percent. Volker leads 43-28 percent among independent voters. Volker has an eight-point lead in the Erie County portion of the district and a commanding 29-point lead in the Livingston/Ontario/Wyoming Counties portion of the district.

Volker is viewed favorably by 49 percent of voters and unfavorably by 32 percent. Democrats are nearly evenly divided on Volker. Konst has a 26-16 percent favorable rating, with 58 percent of voters having no opinion.

Voters support keeping Republicans in control of the Senate by a 49-35 percent margin, with independent voters voicing two-to-one support for Republican control. McCain has a 54-36 percent lead over Obama.

The Delano/Stachowski poll shocks many, as the Buffalo News notes “Stachowski had originally been viewed as a “sure thing” for the Democrats in their effort to tip the balance.” Konst, as we know hasn’t had a very easy couple weeks, with her failure to file to disclosure forms on time, and the revelation she voted twice back in 1996. A website called IVotedTwice.com has emerged featuring various documents and stories supporting the allegations made against her.

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Mike Ranzenhofer accepted seven invitations to debate Baby Joe Mesi.

But, apparently Baby Joe isn’t willing to step into the ring with Mike Ranzenhofer.

Ranzenhofer’s challenge to Joe Mesi on September 24th forced the Mesi campaign to commit to three overdue debate invitations. Mesi responded to WBEN Radio’s Hardline with Hardwick, a live debate on R News in Rochester, and to appear on the Financial Guys Forum on WBEN, although Mesi specifically requested to not be interviewed at the same time as Ranzenhofer.

“Last week Mike Ranzenhofer was invited to debate Joe Mesi at WGRZ-TV Channel 2 and St. Joseph’s Collegiate Institute – two great opportunities to have the two candidates together,” said Molly Fitzpatrick, Director of Communications for Mike Ranzenhofer. “Mike readily accepted the invitations, but much to our disappointment Mesi has not.”

Mike Ranzenhofer is scheduled to talk to voters at the League of Women Voters of Buffalo/Niagara at the Town of Amherst Center for Senior Services on October 16th. Mesi has yet to respond to this invitation too. Ranzenhofer will participate in another debate for the Clarence League of Women Voters on October 27th.

“Mesi is out-of-touch with taxpayers,” said Ranzenhofer. Mesi’s proposal for state mandated health care run by Albany bureaucrats, opposing across-the-board spending cuts, opposing a “tax cap” and supporting a plan which causes Western New Yorkers to loose their STAR rebate checks, is bad for taxpayers. “Voters deserve to hear real answers to the tough questions.”

Baby Joe keep using his boxing career as a metaphor for his willingness to “to fight” Western New York. Well, how can Baby Joe “fight for” Western New York when he can’t even face his opponent.

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Looks like Baby Joe isn’t really interested in fighting for lower taxes.

The state’s projected $9 billion budget gap for next year didn’t stop State Senate candidate Michael H. Ranzenhofer from suggesting a massive, across-the-board cut in taxes last week.

Ranzenhofer said his tax plan — a 10 percent cut in the state’s personal income tax for people earning less than $200,000 and a doubling in the STAR property tax exemption — are essential to helping middle-class families hit hard by the stock market crisis.

But can the state afford it? “Difficult times require dramatic action,” the Amherst Republican said.

In a new 30-second TV ad, Ranzenhofer, an Erie County legislator, touts his tax plan as “real relief.”

His Democratic challenger says its naive and irresponsible.

“It’s basically a lot of fluff,” said Joe Mesi, the former professional boxer. “We agree on the need to cut state spending. The difference is, I can tell you where and how. I’m not sure he can.”

Now, Baby Joe also claims he wants to cut taxes, hardly a sentiment shared by his fellow Democrats. But clearly, he’s less serious about cutting taxes as Mike Ranzenhofer. But I guess we’re just supposed to accept higher taxes because Baby Joe used to be a champion boxer.

Baby Joe not be a career politician, but he’s also not willing to fight for the the tax relief we deserve. High taxes and overregulation are the things driving people out of Western New York… but apparently Baby Joe isn’t serious about keeping people and jobs in Western New York.

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I’ve noticed a lot of ads on TV for the tight race Senate District 61 between Mike Ranzenhofer and Baby Joe. So, I’ve decided to weigh in on two of those ads, one from each campaign, that features the candidate talking to the camera.

First, here’s Mike Ranzenhofer’s:

Next, here’s Baby Joe’s:

The differences between these ads can be distinguished simply as substance vs. style. They both pretty much say the same thing, but Ranzenhofer’s ad gives specifics about what his positions are (i.e. cutting taxes, spending, and capping property taxes) while Baby Joe avoids specifics on how he plans to keep jobs and people in Western New York, and instead presents himself as an average guy who is likable.

Each ad is effective for different reasons.

Ranzenhofer’s is effective because the message of lower taxes, cutting spending and property tax caps will resonate in the district. Baby Joe’s ad is effective because it’s hard not to like him after watching the ad.

Baby Joe is trying to sell himself as a personaility with his ad. Mike Ranzenhofer is running on issues and specific proposals.

Now, normally I would give the edge to an issues-based campaign, however, as the presidential race this year has shown, issues are far less important than personality and buzzwords. If, God forbid, Barack Obama wins in November, it won’t be because of issues, it will be because he sold his image effectively, not because most people really agree with his Socialism-style plans or defeatist attitude on the war on terror.

Now, if I were advising both candidates, I would give them both the following advice. To Baby Joe, I would say he has to be more specific about his positions on the issues in his ads. I’d like to believe people will want to know how he thinks he can keep people and jobs in Western New York. 

Mike Ranzenhofer has to present himself as equally likable as Baby Joe, but also use his past experience as proof he has the ability to actually accomplish the goals he presents. He needs to explain the reasons why people and jobs are leaving New York, and demonstrate he’s the one in the race that can actually do something about it.

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Interesting results from the Siena poll released today.

The Senate race to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Mary Lou Rath is in a statistical dead heat, according to a poll out this morning.

The Siena College Research Institute poll shows former boxer Joe Mesi, a Democrat, leading Michael Ranzenhofer, a Republican county legislator, by 40 percent to 38 percent.

More interesting about this poll is the high number of undecideds.

Twenty-two percent of voters surveyed either don’t know who they support yet or have no opinion. With the poll’s margin of error at 4.6 percent, the poll shows the contest between the two candidates is very much in play.

Based on what I know about the Senate District, I would have expected Ranzenhofer to be a few points ahead. That said, Baby Joe was involved in a hotly contest primary, and was endorsed by Golisano’s Responsible New York PAC.

The high number of undecideds means the race can go either way. If Mesi wants to gain ground, he has to present himself as a moderate to conservative Democrat, and continue to play the outsider card.

Ranzenhofer as well, can play the outsider card, but he can also point his own record. Further, I would suggest he needs to discuss the dangers of potential one-party rule in New York State government — which I think is a huge issue. The last thing New York needs is a rubber stamp for liberal policies with no checks and balances. That is an argument that could very well resonate with independents and undecided voters.

There is, however, another factor that bodes well for Ranzenhofer.

“While this district has a small Republican enrollment edge and has long been represented by a Republican senator, more voters currently know and have a favorable view of Mesi. On more issues, however, they think that Ranzenhofer would do a better job. The race is close, and seems likely to stay that way,” said Steve Greenberg, a spokesman for the Siena poll.

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Baby Joe Mesi, who “challenged” Mike Ranzenhofer to three debates over a week ago, is now apparently running away from debating Ranzenhofer, who had immediately accepted the challenge.

From the Ranzenhofer campaign:

Mike Ranzenhofer, Candidate for State Senate in the 61st Senate District, called out his November opponent for avoiding opportunities to debate the issues. Ranzenhofer immediately accepted four invitations to appear with Mesi to debate and is ready for any opportunity for voters to see the two candidates together.

Ranzenhofer is scheduled for WBEN Radio’s Hardline with Hardwick, R News Live Debate in Rochester, WBEN Radio’s Financial Guys Forum and the League of Women Voters in Clarence. Joe Mesi, however, has not committed to any of these invitations that were given more than two weeks ago.

“Joe Mesi has been hyped by Democrats as a great debater, but hasn’t accepted any of the invitations to debate in his own District.” challenged Ranzenhofer. “He is running away from the local issues. Just last week Mesi made time to speak to the press in New York City with downstate Democrats and to rally today in Rochester.”

“Voters understand that the stakes are too high to send politicians to Albany who are in need of on-the-job training,” said Ranzenhofer. “They deserve an opportunity to hear both candidates in forums sponsored by nonpartisan organizations.”

So where is Baby Joe running? I thought he was a fighter.

I guess despite all his talk about being a fighter, he really is just a lightweight.

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Today, Mike Ranzenhofer, candidate for State Senate in the 61st Senate District, will announce his plan for cutting state spending 15% across the board.

Meanwhile, somewhere else, Baby Joe Mesi is working on another boxing/fighting metaphor for his campaign.

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Buffalo 14228 makes this weak argument against Mike Ranzenhofer:

He’ll do what Mary Lou Rath, the current Republican state senator for 14 years, was unable or unwilling to do…get something done. No sense going through the list of all the previous ineffectve Republican predecessors. All you need to know is that the State Senate has been controlled by Ranzenhofer’s Republican Party for the last 75 years. Electing him won’t correct what amounts to a Republican institutional problem.

The fallacy of this argument is that the New York state government is by no means a Republican institution. If Republicans lose control of the state senate, then the Democrats will have control of the Assembly, the Senate, and the governorship. That, my friends, would mean the Democrats would have an unfettered rubber stamp to impose more regulations and higher taxes, which ultimately leads to driving out the population and driving out businesses. You don’t have to take my word for it… it’s happening right now in Massachusetts.

If that’s what the netroots want, then by all means they can vote for Baby Joe. But, I think this state deserves better than a dysfunctional one-party government.

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The Albany Project gleefully reports that Baby Joe Mesi has “challenged” Mike Ranzenhofer to three debates.

“We owe the voters of the 61st an opportunity to hear more than sound bites from radio and television ads for such an important election.” said Joe Mesi.  ”I believe Albany is broken and I want to have a debate on how we’re going to fix it, and how we can make our economy work for us.”

Mesi proposes the following town hall debates, which will focus on challenges facing working families of the 61st Senate District:

Friday, October 10th 6:00 pm - 7:30 pm 
Wednesday, October 15th 6:00 pm - 7:30 pm 
Wednesday, October 22nd 6:00 pm -7:30 pm

“I believe that voters want new energy, new leadership, and a real plan that focuses on the issues our working families are facing today,” Mesi added.  ”For voters, the choice is clear: we can continue to elect career politicians who produce more of the same business-as-usual politics, or we can choose the change that we need, here at home and in Albany.”

This isn’t a bold move as Robert Harding suggests. This is an absolutely necessary thing for Baby Joe to do. Underdogs in campaigns are known to “challenge” their opponent to debate, because they have nothing to lose from the exposure. Baby Joe may have won the Democratic primary, but Mike Ranzenhofer is extremely popular in the district, and has an actual record to run on. All Baby Joe has to run on is his boxing career… and a charity that increased awareness about organ donation as much as it increased the bank accounts of Mesi’s family.

But, it’s obvious the kind of campaign Baby Joe is going run from now on. He’s clearly jumping on the whole anti-career politician B.S. line I’ve read too many times in various left-wing blogs that it’s as much a cliché as Baby Joe’s boxing metaphor for his campaign. But, Ranzenhofer is not an incumbent, and has actually proven himself to be agent of reform. As you may recall, it was Mike Ranzenhofer and Chris Collins who started the push for GPS systems in county vehicles, a proven method to save taxpayer dollars.

Albany does need a change. Despite the fact Republicans hold a razor thin majority in the State Senate, it’s undeniable that the Democrats are the ones who run the show in Albany and have for quite some time. If the Democrats gain control of the senate, they will have unchecked powers. And as someone who came to New York from a one party state, I can tell you with personal knowledge that a one-party state is is not one that puts the people first. 

Baby Joe may talk the talk about reform, but he’s a member of the party that stands in the way of reform and progress. That last thing we need is another rubber stamp for the party that’s over-regulating ans over-taxing this state.

The choice for 61st Senate District is clear. We need to elect Mike Ranzenhofer… not just for the district, but for the integrity of the state government, which needs balance, not one-party rule.

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I am always amused when Democrats claim they want to talk about issues and in practice, they are some of the nastiness campaigners, desperately seeking to tear their opponents down in order to raise themselves up. So far, the democratic primary in the 26th district has been defined by negative ads, finger-pointing, and scandalmongering. 

Things aren’t all that different in the democratic primary for the 61st Senate district:

Joe Mesi wants the district attorney to investigate Michele Iannello, and Iannello wants the attorney general to investigate Mesi.

Back-and-forth allegations of election impropriety are the latest chapter in what is becoming an increasingly ugly campaign for the 61st State Senate seat.

“We all want to make sure this is a fair election, a clean election,” said Mesi campaign manager Nicki Weiner.

Mesi, a Democrat and former professional boxer, sent a letter this week asking District Attorney Frank Clark to investigate Elections Commissioner Dennis Ward.

Ward is Iannello’s husband and the brother of Daniel Ward, the other Democrat running for the Senate.

Mesi charged Dennis Ward with using his office and Board of Elections employees to benefit his wife’s Democratic primary campaign. He also noted that Ward loaned $8,000 to his wife’s campaign.

“Those are just allegations without proof,” Iannello, a county legislator, said Friday. “There’s been no improper use of board employees.” 

The story also notes various other allegations and revelations in the race. Iannello has been questioning Mesi’s relationship with Tom Golisano’s Responsible New York PAC. Joe Mesi is also dealing with revelations against him.

Iannello claims Golisano’s committee has broken state election law by exceeding the legal limits for contributions while working hand in hand with Mesi’s campaign.

Mesi, meanwhile, is dealing with revelations that his Organ Donation Foundation paid his father, Jack Mesi, $16,500 in salary over a four-year period while handing out only $13,500 in grants.

“Both my father and I have given countless talks and appearances in an effort to raise awareness about the importance of organ donation,” Mesi said in a statement. “I am sure the money paid to my father during those years barely covered his expenses.” 

Of course, those revelations against Mesi were first exposed here at The Buffalo Bean last week. Still, this race was clearly a nasty one before I brought those questions about Joe Mesi to light, and one has wonder how Democrats can claim they’re really about issues, when the only issues they focus on have to do with their opponents and not the ones affecting the people they want to represent.

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A reader of The Buffalo Bean has informed me that “Baby” Joe Mesi has what could be described as his own “War Kids Relief” scandal with his Fight for Organ Donation Foundation.

According to the reader, “from 2003 to 2006 Mesi’s charity, Baby Joe Mesi’s Fight for Organ Donation paid Mesi’s father Jack Mesi at least $16,500 while giving out only $13,500 in grants.” He also noted that the charity’s biggest expense “has been professional services, all to undisclosed sources, except for some paid the husband of Mesi’s cousin.” Those professional services were for things such as legal fees and accounting, which were apparently all done by Mesi’s cousin, Julie Bargnesi.

Here are the Form 990’s for Mesi’s charity for 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006.

UPDATE: Buffalo Pundit suggests that the information I received must have come from a rival campaign of Mesi’s, but most certainly not by one of the Democrats. So, I would like to throw out there that I a) do not know if the source of the information came from someone affiliated with a campaign or not, b) that since this was sent to be before the primary, I suspect it is someone aligned with one of Mesi’s primary opponents, and c) as far as the 61st Senate District race is concerned, only one campaign has every contacted me directly (and by phone, suprisingly) on behalf of the campaign and it was one of the Democrats’ campaigns. I won’t say which, I think Buffalo Pundit is jumping to politically convenient conclusions, especially since there’s clearly enough fighting going on in the Democratic primary.

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