I’ve noticed a lot of ads on TV for the tight race Senate District 61 between Mike Ranzenhofer and Baby Joe. So, I’ve decided to weigh in on two of those ads, one from each campaign, that features the candidate talking to the camera.

First, here’s Mike Ranzenhofer’s:

Next, here’s Baby Joe’s:

The differences between these ads can be distinguished simply as substance vs. style. They both pretty much say the same thing, but Ranzenhofer’s ad gives specifics about what his positions are (i.e. cutting taxes, spending, and capping property taxes) while Baby Joe avoids specifics on how he plans to keep jobs and people in Western New York, and instead presents himself as an average guy who is likable.

Each ad is effective for different reasons.

Ranzenhofer’s is effective because the message of lower taxes, cutting spending and property tax caps will resonate in the district. Baby Joe’s ad is effective because it’s hard not to like him after watching the ad.

Baby Joe is trying to sell himself as a personaility with his ad. Mike Ranzenhofer is running on issues and specific proposals.

Now, normally I would give the edge to an issues-based campaign, however, as the presidential race this year has shown, issues are far less important than personality and buzzwords. If, God forbid, Barack Obama wins in November, it won’t be because of issues, it will be because he sold his image effectively, not because most people really agree with his Socialism-style plans or defeatist attitude on the war on terror.

Now, if I were advising both candidates, I would give them both the following advice. To Baby Joe, I would say he has to be more specific about his positions on the issues in his ads. I’d like to believe people will want to know how he thinks he can keep people and jobs in Western New York. 

Mike Ranzenhofer has to present himself as equally likable as Baby Joe, but also use his past experience as proof he has the ability to actually accomplish the goals he presents. He needs to explain the reasons why people and jobs are leaving New York, and demonstrate he’s the one in the race that can actually do something about it.

I’m still glowing after Sarah Palin’s tremendous victory in tonight’s VP debate, but I did want to chime in on the latest Siena Poll which confirmed my suspicions about their previous poll.  

The previous Siena Poll had the race in New York State a statistical tie. The new poll has Barack up 22 points.

Now the narrative behind this new poll is that Obama has “surged” in New York. But, truthfully, it was not a surge, the new poll mirrors Obama’s standing in the state as virtually every other poll of the state has shown.

UPDATE: Scott Leffler says I “finally admitted” that New York is not in play. Of course, I never said I really believed it was. After the previous Siena poll I specifically said, “I’d like to see a couple other new polls reflect the same competitiveness in the state before I start looking at New York as a battleground state,” and “still there’s plenty of reason to doubt the race in New York is really within the margin of error.”

Chris Lee has a new ad running. Here it is:

How long before Alice In Liberal-land whines about being attacked?

Yesterday, a judge ruled that Kathy Konst cannot run on a second, minor party line this November.

Kathy Konst’s minority party candidacy in her race against State Sen. Dale M. Volker was invalidated Tuesday by State Supreme Court Justice Timothy J. Drury, who upheld Volker’s challenge to Konst’s nominating petitions.

The judge found that Konst’s Integrity Party petitions had 2,838 valid signatures, short of the required 3,000.

This isn’t going to influence the race one way or another, but I think this proves that electoral fusion is largely a distraction to political races.

A more serious problem for Konst is the revelation of evidence that she voted in Florida and in New York back in 1998.

Kathy Konst, the Democratic county legislator from Lancaster challenging incumbent Republican Dale M. Volker for the State Senate, voted on Election Day in Florida and New York in 1998, according to documents obtained by the Republican Senate Campaign Committee.

Federal prosecutors confirm that falsely reporting the place and period of residence for voting in a federal election violates federal law and constitutes a felony. But they also say the statute of limitations for any offense committed in 1998 expired five years ago.

Konst, however, vehemently denies the charges. She said she did not live in Florida in 1998 and claims the documents are “doctored.”

“It’s absolutely impossible,” she said. “I moved from there in 1992. It’s absurd. I swear on a stack of Bibles.”

While Konst may not be prosecuted, the charge is likely to become a major issue in the hotly contested election.

Officials of the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Office confirmed for The Buffalo News that Konst voted at the polls in the Nov. 3, 1998, general election at polling place 407 in West Palm Beach.

Erie County records, meanwhile, also show her voting at the polls on the same day in Lancaster.

This potentially could be a big problem for her, but then again, if Sam Hoyt can win a primary despite his exposed affairs with interns I doubt that Konst committing a felony will severely hurt her standing among Democrats in the general election.

Could Konst have been the victim of fraud? Perhaps… but depending on much this is pursued, it certainly makes me concerned about the integrity of voting down in Florida — a battleground state — when a Democrat who is no longer a resident somehow manages to cast a vote. If Konst did not vote herself in both Florida and New York, then the real issue is how was a vote cast for her, and what other non-resident Democrats have managed somehow to cast illegal votes in the Sunshine State.

I think a federal investigation is in order here. Konst may be innocent, but the Democratic Party in Florida may be guilty of massive voter fraud.

While Brian Higgins voted for the massive bailout plan that failed yesterday, Dan Humiston has come out against the bailout, saying it is the wrong answer to our economic crisis.

“I am firmly against a plan that requires innocent Western New Yorkers to clean up the financial mess that greed on Wall Street created. Our community wasn’t responsible for and didn’t benefit from Wall Street’s sub-prime fiasco, so why should we have to pay to fix it?” Humiston said.

“I applaud the House of Representatives for their decision to reject the proposed corporate bailout. I hope that those who voted against the bailout will continue to stand their ground and tell Wall Street that their votes are not for sale. I’m disappointed that Congressman Higgins voted to support the bailout. It’s unfortunate that he chose to support his friends on Wall St. instead of the hardworking families in Western New York.”

Humiston also said that “Western New York families can’t afford to bail out Wall Street. We shouldn’t allow the Wall Street-manipulated media or politicians with hidden agendas to scare us into making a bad decision.”

Looks like Sam Hoyt has been given a virtual pass from his buddies in the Assembly:

Assemblyman Sam Hoyt escaped the most serious punishment by his Assembly colleagues for his extramarital affair with an intern, but college interns have been banned from his Albany and Buffalo offices.

The ban, announced Friday by Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, followed a finding by the Assembly Ethics and Guidance Committee that the Buffalo Democrat had engaged in an “inappropriate personal relationship” with the woman, who was an intern when the affair began.

But stronger penalties — a formal censure or loss of his committee chairmanship — was not taken because she no longer was an intern in 2004 when the Assembly banned fraternization between lawmakers and interns.

Well, another Democrats gets away. Big shock.

Gerry Studds would be so proud.

I am on the road to an undisclosed location in Ohio, but I did receive an email just now informing me that a new scientific poll conducted by SurveyUSA for WGRZ has Chris Lee leading leading Alice Kryzan 48%-37%.

UPDATE, Sunday, September 28, 2008, 6:23 PM: I have returned from my mini-vacation in Put-In Bay, OH. Now that I’m back, I thought I’d offer more on this new, legitimate poll.

A scientific poll conducted exclusively for 2 On Your Side by Survey USA shows republican Chris Lee leading democrat Alice Kryzan 48% to 37% in the race for the 26th congressional district. 

The poll was conducted by Survey USA, an independent research company that conducted a telephone survey of 900 registered voters in the 26th congressional district on September 24th and 25th.
Working Families Party candidate Jon Powers received 5% of the vote today. Independence Party candidate Anthony Fumerelle, who was replaced by the Independence Party with Republican Chris Lee during the field period of this survey, took 3% of the vote.

7% of likely voters are undecided.

Now, this new poll totally contradicts the findings of the earlier poll put out by the DCCC, which had Kryzan up by 10 points, with nearly 1/3 of respondents undecided. Why should this new poll be trusted and the DCCC not? Well, I’ve already explained why you can’t trust the DCCC poll.

WBRZ posted the internals for this SurveyUSA poll, (the DCCC did not post their internals) and there is a lot of good data you can take from it… all of it bodes well for Chris Lee. He leads among men, women, and Independents.  

Neither Scott Leffler or Buffalo Pundit have chimed in on this new poll, but Robert Harding of The Albany Project has:

This poll counters a DCCC-backed poll from earlier this week that showed Kryzan up ten points. I will take SurveyUSA’s word over the DCCC poll. Kryzan being up ten in this district was a little weird to me, but made for a great news story and a great way to raise money for her anyway. Nevertheless, there is a lot of work to do in this district.  

Now this is interesting because it is pretty much what I said last week when the poll first came out:

[The DCCC poll]  is more useful as a fundraising tool for Alice Kryzan than as a legitimate snapshot of the state of the congressional race.

Maybe it worked and Kryzan was able to raise a bit of money from her bogus poll. But, the SurveyUSA poll is probably going to make people think twice before giving her any of their hard-earned gas money.

The Independence Party, New York’s third-largest political party, announced they are endorsing Chris Lee for Congress in the 26th District. Chris Lee released the following statement upon learning of the endorsement:

“I am honored to have the endorsement of New York State’s Independence Party.  I greatly appreciate their support in this election.

“On November 4, the people of Western New York will have a clear choice, and the opportunity to send a real independent voice to Washington who will restore fiscally responsibility and fight to lessen the tax burden on our families. 

 ”Washington is broken - I will fight to end the gridlock and restore taxpayer trust by holding leaders accountable for how they spend our hard earned money. 

“In these tough economic times we need a new direction in Congress and a leader who has the real-world experience to get solutions for our families.”

The Buffalo News reports:

The development is seen as a major coup for Lee, who now has the top two minor party lines along with the GOP slot.

The Independence Party was able to place Lee on the ballot under its line by exercising a series of technical moves.

Anthony L. Fumerelle previously had been the Independence Party’s candidate, but is now nominated for a State Supreme Court judgeship in Queens even though Fumerlle is a Buffalo attorney.

Other than death, nomination for a Supreme Court post is the only way a candidate can be replaced at this late date, according to state election law.

“We requested that Anthony move off after we found what we consider to be the best candidate for our line,” State Vice Chairman Thomas S. Connolly said. “This is necessary in a very tough situation where we are in the midst of a primary and you can’t determine who the candidates will be until after.”

When asked why voters should have confidence in a party that switches candidates after nominating them, Connolly said confusion in the Independence Party and in the Democratic primary caused the minor party to take the unusual step.

According to the story, Alice Kryzan was not considered for the endorsement.

 Connolly said the party did not contact Democrat Alice J. Kryzan, feeling more comfortable with the former businessman from Amherst.

It’s pretty sad that the only way Barack Obama can attack John McCain is by linking him to President Bush… my friend Scott Leffler seems to think that a similar strategy would work in the 26th District by linking Chris Lee to Tom Reynolds, who many liberal bloggers in WNY despise, for whatever ridiculous reason they can come up with.

… I just found this web page that lists congressmen based on how well they stick up for the middle class. It says he’s at 50 percent for the year. And he’s gotten F’s on the previous four years they graded.    

Yup, that’s the Tom Reynolds I remember … stickin’ it to the middle class.

And he’s endorsed Chris Lee. I wonder if Lee thought about declining that endorsement? Doubt it. From what I can tell, Lee aspires to be just like Reynolds. He’s got the same campaign staff. And he doesn’t return my calls. Just. Like. Reynolds.

If I were advising the Dems, I’d tell them to make sure to link Lee to Reynolds just like Obama is linking McCain to Bush. After all, no one really believes that Reynolds isn’t running so he can spend time with his family. It’s cause he was afraid of getting his ass kicked.

And no one really believes Barack Obama is qualified to be President of the United States, but that’s not stopping millions from for him… But I digress.

What I don’t understand is why Scott was so quick to accept the assessment of the website TheMiddleClass.org as legitimate and objective. It’s easy for a blogger or even a member of the media to give credence to a poll, or a study, or an organization that tells them what they want to hear, while dismissing those that don’t.

The other day, Buffalo Pundit criticized Chris Lee’s latest ad for citing data from a conservative think tank, the Heritage Foundation. It’s fair argument to make, just as I have similarly questioned the sources Democrats use to support their claims, be it from liberal think tanks, research groups, etc. 

What Scott failed to do (or just chose not to do) was question the source. It would have taken all of 10 seconds to find out that TheMiddleClass.org is run by the Drum Major Institute, and that the Drum Major Institute is a liberal research group. Not bipartisan. Not nonpartisan. Liberal. 

Do I really need to say anything else?

Interesting results from the Siena poll released today.

The Senate race to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Mary Lou Rath is in a statistical dead heat, according to a poll out this morning.

The Siena College Research Institute poll shows former boxer Joe Mesi, a Democrat, leading Michael Ranzenhofer, a Republican county legislator, by 40 percent to 38 percent.

More interesting about this poll is the high number of undecideds.

Twenty-two percent of voters surveyed either don’t know who they support yet or have no opinion. With the poll’s margin of error at 4.6 percent, the poll shows the contest between the two candidates is very much in play.

Based on what I know about the Senate District, I would have expected Ranzenhofer to be a few points ahead. That said, Baby Joe was involved in a hotly contest primary, and was endorsed by Golisano’s Responsible New York PAC.

The high number of undecideds means the race can go either way. If Mesi wants to gain ground, he has to present himself as a moderate to conservative Democrat, and continue to play the outsider card.

Ranzenhofer as well, can play the outsider card, but he can also point his own record. Further, I would suggest he needs to discuss the dangers of potential one-party rule in New York State government — which I think is a huge issue. The last thing New York needs is a rubber stamp for liberal policies with no checks and balances. That is an argument that could very well resonate with independents and undecided voters.

There is, however, another factor that bodes well for Ranzenhofer.

“While this district has a small Republican enrollment edge and has long been represented by a Republican senator, more voters currently know and have a favorable view of Mesi. On more issues, however, they think that Ranzenhofer would do a better job. The race is close, and seems likely to stay that way,” said Steve Greenberg, a spokesman for the Siena poll.