It’s pretty sad that the only way Barack Obama can attack John McCain is by linking him to President Bush… my friend Scott Leffler seems to think that a similar strategy would work in the 26th District by linking Chris Lee to Tom Reynolds, who many liberal bloggers in WNY despise, for whatever ridiculous reason they can come up with.

… I just found this web page that lists congressmen based on how well they stick up for the middle class. It says he’s at 50 percent for the year. And he’s gotten F’s on the previous four years they graded.     

Yup, that’s the Tom Reynolds I remember … stickin’ it to the middle class.

And he’s endorsed Chris Lee. I wonder if Lee thought about declining that endorsement? Doubt it. From what I can tell, Lee aspires to be just like Reynolds. He’s got the same campaign staff. And he doesn’t return my calls. Just. Like. Reynolds.

If I were advising the Dems, I’d tell them to make sure to link Lee to Reynolds just like Obama is linking McCain to Bush. After all, no one really believes that Reynolds isn’t running so he can spend time with his family. It’s cause he was afraid of getting his ass kicked.

And no one really believes Barack Obama is qualified to be President of the United States, but that’s not stopping millions from for him… But I digress.

What I don’t understand is why Scott was so quick to accept the assessment of the website TheMiddleClass.org as legitimate and objective. It’s easy for a blogger or even a member of the media to give credence to a poll, or a study, or an organization that tells them what they want to hear, while dismissing those that don’t.

The other day, Buffalo Pundit criticized Chris Lee’s latest ad for citing data from a conservative think tank, the Heritage Foundation. It’s fair argument to make, just as I have similarly questioned the sources Democrats use to support their claims, be it from liberal think tanks, research groups, etc. 

What Scott failed to do (or just chose not to do) was question the source. It would have taken all of 10 seconds to find out that TheMiddleClass.org is run by the Drum Major Institute, and that the Drum Major Institute is a liberal research group. Not bipartisan. Not nonpartisan. Liberal. 

Do I really need to say anything else?

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I was just alerted to a new poll, sponsored by the DCCC and EMILY’s List, that claims that Alice Kryzan has a 10-point lead over Chris Lee

A Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies poll of 400 likely voters shows that Alice Kryzan holds a 10-point lead over Republican candidate for Congress Chris Lee with 39 percent to 29 percent and 32 percent undecided. The poll, which was commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List, was conducted September 15-17 with a 4.9 percent margin of error. Attached is a polling memo from pollster Cornell Belcher.

“This poll shows that just 42 days before Election Day, Alice Kryzan is in good position to win,” said Carrie James, regional press secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “With a weakened economy, Chris Lee’s record of moving jobs to China just doesn’t sell in Western New York. Alice Kryzan has the independence and integrity to represent Western New York in Congress and this poll shows a clear path to victory.”

Now, there are so many things wrong with the poll it’s hard to know where to begin.

Well, let’s start with the obvious: The poll was conducted by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies which is a liberal group. Based on their own memo, they must know their methods are suspect, because they did not release the poll’s crosstabs and methodology. So, there are two key thing we do not know:

• The sample size of Republicans, Democrats and Independents.
• The wording and order of the exact questions asked.

The reason the sample size for each party affiliation is important is because in the 26th district, the Republican Party has an undeniable advantage. The district went 51-44 for Bush in 200, and 55-43 for Bush in 2004. The Republican Party has more registered voters than the Democratic Party in the district as well. I am willing to bet that the poll under-sampled Republicans significantly.

Some might argue that the political climate for Republicans is not considered to be great. That’s only partially true. I would argue the Democrats had a greater advantage in 2006, and Tom Reynolds still managed to win reelection.

Yes, this year Republicans did have a significant deficit on the generic congressional ballot… but that was only until recently:

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latestUSA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

If that’s the case in voters’ “generic ballot” then one could easily conclude that Chris Lee, already enjoying an advantage with party registration, would have an even bigger advantage as a result of that shift. That shift, of course, is largely attributed to a surge in enthusiasm amongst Republicans following John McCain’s selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Months prior to the Palin Effect, two nonpartisan groups had already seen a pro-Republican shift in the district.

And then we have to wonder why the memo did not release the exact wording and order of the questions asked in the poll. The idiolect of the memo from Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies is by no means objective. Which leads me to believe that the wording of the questions were not objective and crafted in such a way for the poll to achieve a desired result. In other words, this was likely a push poll.

Now it’s not surprising that several liberal bloggers in WNY are eating this poll up. Robert Harding at The Albany Project calls the poll exciting even though he usually takes such polls with a grain of salt.

Rochester Turning is not nearly as pumped by the poll, but believes it shows the race should be competitive.

But, neither asked the same questions about the poll as I have. Why not? Because the poll tells them what they want to hear, and that’s good enough to motivate them into thinking Kryzan can pull it off.

Considering all the money that was donated to Jon Powers’ failed campaign by the netroots, a poll like this is more useful as a fundraising tool for Alice Kryzan than as a legitimate snapshot of the state of the congressional race.

UPDATE: I have to say that I’m disappointed that friend Scott Leffler seems to take the poll at face value:

A 10 point lead has got to be nice for Kryzan. But 32 percent undecided in a Republican district has got to be a concern for her. Of course, she would only need slightly more than a third of the undecideds to win.

UPDATE: Roll Call has a story that backs up my assessment of the poll:

Republicans are sure to cry foul when they see the poll results. The Western New York district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats — as of March 1, there were 178,000 Republicans and 141,000 Democrats, while 121,000 voters were registered with minor parties or unaffiliated.

Yet the pollsters, while acknowledging that the district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats, said 33 percent of the voters surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 32 percent Republicans and 25 percent independents.

I also said that the poll was more likely a fundraising tool for Kryzan… this part seems to support that to:

Despite the district’s leanings, Democrats have been bullish about their chances of winning Reynolds’ seat. But the DCCC backed a candidate other than Kryzan — Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who remains on the general election ballot as the nominee of the Working Families Party — and Democrats have been scrambling to shore her up since her primary win. Through Aug. 20, Lee, who is personally wealthy, was sitting on $751,000 in his campaign account, while Kryzan had just $95,000.

And one can’t help laughing at the irony of the last paragraph of the story:

The DCCC began airing an ad in the district over the weekend accusing Lee of sending some of his company’s business to China. Ironically, in a clerical error in its Federal Election Commission filing for the independent expenditure, the DCCC said it was placing the ad on behalf of Powers.

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Scott Leffler is not very happy with Jon Powers today.

While enjoying some family TV time tonight I saw a new ad for the Jon Powers campaign.

And I gotta tell ya, it pissed me off.

It was - in essense - a rehashed Tom Reynolds ad from two years ago. And that Tom Reynolds ad featured a sound bite from my show … as well as one from the Tom Bauerle show.

The two allegations of the ad: That Davis wants to decrease social security and increase the retirement age. At least one of those allegations were previously debunked by FactCheck.org … with my help.

The sound bite from Dialog from Oct. 26, 2o04 says: “I think we should increase the retirement age.” And it’s played as though it’s a Davis plan … although that’s not at all what Davis said.

And you can read his explanation there… but I would like to add this. 

The Powers campaign hits Davis for not doing a debate on WBEN … meanwhile the Powers campaign ignores my invite to do a debate on WLVL. And one of the reasons Davis doesn’t like to do radio is because he gets taken out of context by weaselly Republicans … and now by Powers.

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I got back from the Chris Lee for Congress fundraiser at the Buffalo-Niagara Marriott in Amherst a little while ago. It was a big event with lots of people and campaign officials tell me it was a huge success.

Yours truly was in attendance at the fundraiser for both the VIP Meet & Greet and the reception that followed.

There were quite a few local party leaders and Republican candidates there this evening, and I was fortunate to meet quite a few of them. Jim Domagalski, chairman of the Erie County Republican Party, Henry F. Wojtaszek, chairman of the Niagara County Republican Party, and Ed Cox, the New York State chairman of Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign.

As for the candidates, I had really good conversations with Dan Humiston, who’s running for congress in the 27th District (my district) and Detective Dennis Delano, candidate for the State Senate.

Also there this evening was Congressman Tom Reynolds. There were a lot of people who wanted to speak with him, so I only talked to him briefl

y, but I expect to be conducting an interview with him for The Buffalo Bean sometime in the near future.

Of course, the man of the hour was Chris Lee. Congressman Reynolds introduced Lee to the VIP Meet & Greet, praising him for “understanding Western New York and its values.” He called Lee a “new voice in the next generation of leadership,” and after describing Lee’s background in business and his family, said that Lee “brings strong conservative values and principles to the aspect of what [being in Congress] needs and is about.”

Later, at the reception, Reynolds once again introduced Chris Lee to the larger crowd. He began by saying that he truly believes the saying that “all politics is local” and that he practiced that his entire career. He explained, “Chris Lee brings [in his life experience] … an experience of business, [and] a native aspect of being a Western new Yorker,” and of being the father of a three-year-old.

Reynolds hinted at the success of the fundraiser by revealing that it was “a record setting fundraiser for an inaugural candidacy for anyone running for the United States House of Representatives.”

Then he welcome the next congressman for the 26th district, Chris Lee.

Flattered by the large crowd and enormous enthusiasm, Chris Lee promised to work for the people of his district, he recognized that the people in this room that he’d be working for, “you’re paying my salary if I’m fortunate enough to get there.”

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Things continue to look good for Chris Lee to succeed Tom Reynolds as Republican David Ballavia, an Iraq war veteran, announced he would not challenge Chris Lee for the Republican nomination.

After more than a dozen Republicans expressed interest in succeeding Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds following his retirement announcement in March, Christopher J. Lee emerged as the last man standing Thursday when his sole remaining opponent said he would not run.

David Bellavia, who won the Silver Star in Iraq and wrote a book about his war experiences, told The Buffalo News he will not challenge Lee for the GOP nomination. He also ruled out talk of challenging Rep. Louise M. Slaughter, D-Fairport, for her seat in the adjacent 28th District, leaving the Republicans still without a candidate to challenge the veteran congresswoman.

“We had conversations about it, but the idea of running against her never came out of my mouth,” he said. “It was the thought of other people.”

But, on the Democrat side, a fourth has entered the race.

Bellavia’s withdrawal means the Republicans are unified behind Lee, while the Democratic field has grown to four contenders. Erie County Legislator Kathy Konst of Lancaster said this week she intends to run in the Democratic primary, which already includes Clarence businessman Jack Davis, Iraq War veteran and former substitute teacher Jon Powers, and Amherst attorney Alice J. Kryzan.

The National Journal’s Hotline blog recognizes the latest turn of events bodes well for GOP prospects for NY-26.

Four of NY’s six GOP seats could swing to Dems this fall. But one of those four, retiring Tom Reynolds’ (R) NY-26, looks less and less everyday like it belongs with those other three.

PoliticsNY.net even notes that favored Democrat chalenger Jon Powers “has no substantive support in the District” despite all the party endorsements he’s received.

The Hotline blog also reports that we may not have heard the last from Bellavia:

The party has also been working to clear the primary field of its only remaining candidate, and is trying to move Iraq vet David Bellavia (D) to the NY-28 race.

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Yesterday, retiring Congressman Tom Reynolds endorsed Christopher J. Lee’s bid to fill his seat in the House.

At Erie County Republican headquarters in Buffalo, Reynolds said he’ll work “tirelessly” to help Lee’s candidacy.

“Chris brings to the table the necessary experience and understanding of how to get results. That is exactly what Western New Yorkers need in a representative,” Reynolds said. “I believe he will be a fighter for lower taxes, working families, a great advocate for local industry and an ardent supporter of our fighting men and women in harm’s way.”

Amongst other things, it looks like Reynolds will be able help Lee with cash from his political action committee. Funny enough, the Buffalo News made this observation:

[...] Reynolds, who has always ranked as a prolific political fundraiser throughout a 35- year career, leaves with an extraordinary amount of money. He can now use it for a variety of purposes (although he cannot use the campaign account personally) to help candidates, contribute to charities or even create a foundation. Some former members of Congress have used their campaign kitties to further new Washington careers as lobbyists.

Was that a reference to the Democrats’ candidate, Jon Powers, who violated election laws by using campaign funds to pay his rent? Perhaps not, but it’s nice to know that a political news reporter at The Buffalo News is aware of election laws, even if Jon Powers, isn’t.

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Christopher Lee kicked off his campaign to replace Tom Reynolds in Congress, today, making a number of stops across the 26th Congressional district.

Lee, a business executive from Clarence, introduced himself briefly in five stops around the U.S. House 26th district, including a late afternoon visit to Main Street, Lockport, where he was flanked by family and a contingent of GOP figures from the city, town and county.

Lee, 44, said he’s aiming to replace retiring incumbent Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, R-Clarence, so he can give the Capitol the perspective of a small businessman from a region stunted by high taxes, hyper-regulation and the flight of native talent.

“For too long, we have heard about creating jobs, lowering taxes and eliminating needless regulation. Unfortunately, the results have not matched the rhetoric,” Lee said. “Western New Yorkers are demanding real reform, real change, real leadership and real solutions.”

Since my move to New York, I’ve heard lots of people (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents) complain about how non-business friendly this state is. Lee’s years as a successful small businessman clearly have given him the appropriate insight and experience needed in Congress during this current period of economic slowdown. Democrat Jon Powers offers a lot of the same old DNC talking points on his website, but as we’ve experienced, Democrat rhetoric and reality are two completely different things.

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Postles declines candidacy for Reynolds’ seat

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GOP’s list of Reynolds’ replacements narrows

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U.S. Rep. Tom Reynolds retires

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