There’s certainly a lot of chatter about the latest Siena poll showing New York being in play for John McCain. All the talk has certainly increased enthusiasm not just for Republicans, but for Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats who support McCain/Palin:

The “Palin effect” has given the McCain campaign a lift in [New York State], putting it within reach, according to Edward Cox, McCain’s state campaign chief. 

“We are doing much better among women and Democrats,” Cox said during a visit to Republican headquarters downtown. “These are Reagan Democrats and Hillary Democrats.”

Cox pointed to a Siena College poll, released Monday, that found McCain trailed Obama by 5 percentage points, compared with an 8-point gap last month and 13 points in July.

Sarah Palin, McCain’s running mate, has electrified many undecided voters, including local “hockey moms,” campaign officials said.

But other polls report a wider gap, and Obama campaign spokesman Blake Zeff dismissed the prediction of a close race as wishful thinking.

The last Republican presidential candidate to win New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Cox’s prediction may help boost Republican turnout and energize campaign volunteers, who were disappointed at McCain’s lack of a public appearance when he visited Buffalo for a fundraiser in July.

But Cox fell short of pledging a serious campaign for the state. He wouldn’t predict that McCain will visit the area, and said the McCain campaign has no plans for a television advertising blitz in New York unless the poll gap narrows further.

Even voters from Democratic strongholds, however, are calling with support, drawn by the energy that Palin has brought to the ticket, local Republicans said.

“They don’t want McCain signs; they want McCain/Palin signs,” said Russ Gugino, regional campaign coordinator.

“There are an awful lot of hockey moms in Western New York who can relate to Gov. Palin,” said James Domagalski, chairman of the Erie County Republican Party.

This story reinforces my earlier point that it will have to take a number of other polls showing a tight race in New York to merit either John McCain investing money here to score an upset, or for Barack Obama doing the same in order to hold his ground.

Still, the local Republican committees in New York state have a huge opportunity with this surge of enthusiasm. They should be signing people up for massive Get Out The Vote efforts in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Recent polls show McCain is ahead in Ohio, but not comfortably ahead. We’ll undoubtedly need a good ground game there. While I’m not worried about Ohio, it is vital to McCain’s chances of victory.

But, what could really help McCain is a surge of his supporters getting out the vote in Pennsylvania, where polls are very close. If McCain wins in Pennsylvania, he wins the election.

New York, as far as the presidential election is concerned, isn’t important. The Real Clear Politics Average for the state shows there’s no justifiable reason for McCain to waste any resources here.

If the Republican committees in New York don’t take advantage of the surge of enthusiasm by building up a massive Election Day GOTV army to send to Ohio and Pennsylvania, than they are only helping Obama.

For the sake of the county, I hope they aren’t squandering that opportunity.

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Back in July, Ed Cox said John McCain could win New York.

A recent poll suggest there may be some truth to that, as Obama’s lead in this state has dipped by 10 points since June.

According to a poll released yesterday, the Democrat leads Senator McCain by 47% to 39%, a healthy advantage that has nevertheless deteriorated significantly over the course of the summer. The poll, conducted by the Siena Research Institute, also indicated that Governor Paterson’s “call to action” on the state’s budget crisis is resonating with voters. Nearly half of them describe New York’s fiscal condition as poor, yet the governor’s approval ratings are increasing.

Mr. Obama is currently eight points ahead of Mr. McCain in New York, down from a 13-point lead in July and an 18-point lead in June. The chairman of Mr. McCain’s New York campaign, Ed Cox, said that the Republican senator is making gains in the state largely because of his credibility on national security issues.

“For the presidency, this is going to be a national security election, and national security is a nonpartisan issue,” Mr. Cox said. “New York becomes a purple state and not a blue state.”

In many ways Barack Obama reminds me of Jon Powers. An unqualified candidate who pads his resume but still generates excitement amongst the party’s activist base. It looks like New Yorkers are starting to see that Obama isn’t measuring up to all the hype. I suspect the voters of the 26th District will also realize that there’s less to Jon Powers than meets the eye.

HAT TIP: Albany’s Insanity.

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Business First reports on his prediction:

Despite New York’s political reputation as Democratic stronghold, the head of Sen. John McCain’s Empire State presidential campaign team believes the Arizona Republican can win the state, including Upstate and Western New York.

Edward Cox, a partner in the New York law firm of Patterson Belknap Webb & Tylerand son-in-law of former President Nixon, made that prediction during a meeting at Business First.

Cox was in Buffalo to take part in a fund raiser for Christoper Lee, who is running for the suburban Republican congressional seat currently held by Rep. Tom Reynolds, who is retiring, and to meet with McCain supporters as prelude to the candidate’s scheduled July 21 day-long visit to the region.

Cox said when Sen. Barack Obama became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee in this year’s presidential race, edging out U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, that changed the race’s dynamics.

“New York is more in play now with Obama than it would have been with Mrs. Clinton,” Cox said. “Obama is much more of a mystery (to Buffalo).”

While many will probably write this off as wishful thinking, the story does note that Obama only has a mere 6-point lead in the polls for New York. The state could very well end up in play this year as voters learn more about Obama and his positions and recognize his total lack of experience and qualifications. Considering Obama’s resume is so thin that he has to embellish his own credentials, I can see things looking significantly better for McCain in November, not just in battleground states, but states normally considered safe for Democrat candidates, like New York.

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