This reverses the decision earlier today that gave Kryzan the WFP line…

More details to come.

UPDATE: The decision.

UPDATE: In the end I don’t think this decision will have any impact on the election. it seems to me that electoral fusion has just become another device that shifts the electoral process into the courts. In 2006, I, along with a majority of Massachusetts voters, defeated a proposal to bring electoral fusion to the state. Since I moved to Western New York, I have seen why it was the right choice…  Electoral fusion, from what I understand is meant to give more attention to the issues championed by these small minor parties, but instead is more about the candidate getting more lines on the ballot, as if that somehow matters.

UPDATE: Via Buffalo Pundit, here the Kryzan campaign’s whiney statement: 

Today, the New York State Supreme Court ruled in favor of Christopher Lee’s effort to keep Alice Kryzan from appearing on the Working Family Party line.

Anne Wadsworth, Sr Campaign Advisor said: “This is nothing more than the Republican machine’s attempt to make a mockery of the Democratic process. Jon Powers is not a candidate for Congress, he does not live in the state of New York and therefore by state law is ineligible to appear on the ballot. Clearly Republicans are struggling to come up with a winning message and are therefore playing Karl Rove-like antics in an attempt to steal the election. Alice got into this campaign because she believes that with new leadership we can bring jobs and prosperity back to Western New York. Republicans can play all the political games and use all the smear tactics they want, but we are confident that come November 4th Western New York will see through the mud and elect Alice Kryzan because she represents the positive change we need with integrity and independence.”

Cry me a river, Anne. Seriously.  Aside from the ridiculous left-wing talking points, the weight given to these minor party lines is, in  my opinion, overestimated.

But I do want to address the charge that the ruling was “nothing more than the Republican machine’s attempt to make a mockery of the Democratic process,” and Republicans are “playing Karl Rove-like antics in an attempt to steal the election.”

One of the cases cited in the ruling as precedent was Texas Democratic Party v. Benkiser. For those of who don’t recall, that was the case involving former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay in 2006. DeLay had not only officially retired, but had moved out of state. Despite these facts, and the fact that a replacement candidate had already been chosen, the state Democratic Party fought (successfully) to keep him on the ballot. So, no one, not even Anne Wadsworth, can pin this on “Karl Rove-like antics” when Democrats set that precedent.

Howard Dean-like antics would be more appropriate and accurate. 

On Monday, Jon Powers and I will be hitting the pavement and talking to voters in Rochester, Geneseo, Batavia and Williamsville about importance of this election to the working families of Western New York.

Oh really? Is Jon Powers in town campaigning with Alice? I thought he moved to Virginia for a job? It must be tough starting a new job in Virginia when you are campaigning in Western New York.

If Jon Powers really did move to Virginia for a job (which is the Kryzan campaign’s whole case for giving her the Working Families Party line) then what is he doing in Western New York? Has he really moved yet? Shouldn’t he be in Virginia, starting that new job or unpacking his belongings?

Perhaps he is only in Virginia in his mind.

I wonder why he waited so long.

Friends,

I hope this email finds you well. We have talked a great deal over this last year about how incredibly important this election is to the future of our country. New leadership in Washington will be responsible for navigating us through these challenging economic times, implementing an energy policy that will break our nation’s addiction to foreign oil, and bring our troops home safely, securely, and soon.

As you know, my family and I have been highly invested in this year’s election and believe that each of us has a responsibility to serve this nation in a fashion that can help play a role in the change we need. Each of us is responsible for being part of the solution that will help get our nation back on our feet.

Erin and I know that we still have a role to play in this year’s election. We have decided to take a job opportunity in Washington, DC that will allow us to make an impact on a national level.

I will be working with the Eleison Group to develop Veteran Advisory Councils for Congressional campaigns across the country. This will allow me to help candidates not only understand the issues around the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan but put together policies to ensure we are taking care of those who served us. The Veteran Advisory Council provides me an opportunity to engage veterans in Western New York and across the nation to make sure they are working with their local campaigns to provide the critical first hand knowledge that someone who has been in combat brings to the conversation.

We have decided to stop our campaign and I am no longer running for Congress.

We want to thank each of you for your hard work and dedication. Please continue to serve in your community and find a way to get involved in this year’s elections.

This campaign was never about an individual, it was about this community. If you believe that together we have the power to change Washington, then please continue to work toward the dramatic change our country needs.

Sincerely,

Jon

Notice how he did not offer any words of support for Alice Kryzan.

I guess Powers exits the race a sore loser.

Efforts are under way to make Democrat Alice J. Kryzan the new candidate of the Working Families Party in the 26th Congressional District, giving her another line on the ballot in her campaign against Republican Christopher J. Lee.

But Republicans are already challenging the idea, claiming there is no constitutional basis to remove the designated candidate – Democrat Jon Powers – from the ballot.

“If they try to file a certificate of nomination claiming he is disqualified, the question is how can he be disqualified,” said Ralph M. Mohr, Erie County’s Republican election commissioner.

Mohr said the only residency requirement posed by the Constitution for a member of the House of Representatives is that the candidate live in the state “at the time” of election. As a result, he contends that someone could be a resident at 9 p.m. on Election Day and qualify.

But since no pre-residency requirment exists, Mohr said there is no basis to remove Powers from the ballot.

Honestly, I don’t see what the big deal is about having multiple lines on a ballot. Since I’ve moved to New York it seems that all this electoral fusion stuff has been more a cause for dispute than anything else.

The article did point out that Jon Powers has allegedly moved out of state. Now, sources tell me he’s taken a job in Washington, D.C.

If the GOP really wants to make an issue of this, they could challenge Jon Powers residency. Back in 2006 when Tom DeLay  retired from the House and moved to Virginia, Democrats challenged his residency (by saying he was still a resident of Texas) in order to keep him on the ballot. 

I don’t think Alice should count on the WFP line on the November ballot. There’s clearly precedent to keep him on, even if he has moved out-of-state.

A Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies poll of 400 likely voters shows that Alice Kryzan holds a 10-point lead over Republican candidate for Congress Chris Lee with 39 percent to 29 percent and 32 percent undecided. The poll, which was commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List, was conducted September 15-17 with a 4.9 percent margin of error. Attached is a polling memo from pollster Cornell Belcher.

“This poll shows that just 42 days before Election Day, Alice Kryzan is in good position to win,” said Carrie James, regional press secretary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “With a weakened economy, Chris Lee’s record of moving jobs to China just doesn’t sell in Western New York. Alice Kryzan has the independence and integrity to represent Western New York in Congress and this poll shows a clear path to victory.”

Now, there are so many things wrong with the poll it’s hard to know where to begin.

Well, let’s start with the obvious: The poll was conducted by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies which is a liberal group. Based on their own memo, they must know their methods are suspect, because they did not release the poll’s crosstabs and methodology. So, there are two key thing we do not know:

• The sample size of Republicans, Democrats and Independents.
• The wording and order of the exact questions asked.

The reason the sample size for each party affiliation is important is because in the 26th district, the Republican Party has an undeniable advantage. The district went 51-44 for Bush in 200, and 55-43 for Bush in 2004. The Republican Party has more registered voters than the Democratic Party in the district as well. I am willing to bet that the poll under-sampled Republicans significantly.

Some might argue that the political climate for Republicans is not considered to be great. That’s only partially true. I would argue the Democrats had a greater advantage in 2006, and Tom Reynolds still managed to win reelection.

Yes, this year Republicans did have a significant deficit on the generic congressional ballot… but that was only until recently:

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latestUSA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

If that’s the case in voters’ “generic ballot” then one could easily conclude that Chris Lee, already enjoying an advantage with party registration, would have an even bigger advantage as a result of that shift. That shift, of course, is largely attributed to a surge in enthusiasm amongst Republicans following John McCain’s selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Months prior to the Palin Effect, two nonpartisan groups had already seen a pro-Republican shift in the district.

And then we have to wonder why the memo did not release the exact wording and order of the questions asked in the poll. The idiolect of the memo from Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies is by no means objective. Which leads me to believe that the wording of the questions were not objective and crafted in such a way for the poll to achieve a desired result. In other words, this was likely a push poll.

Now it’s not surprising that several liberal bloggers in WNY are eating this poll up. Robert Harding at The Albany Project calls the poll exciting even though he usually takes such polls with a grain of salt.

Rochester Turning is not nearly as pumped by the poll, but believes it shows the race should be competitive.

But, neither asked the same questions about the poll as I have. Why not? Because the poll tells them what they want to hear, and that’s good enough to motivate them into thinking Kryzan can pull it off.

Considering all the money that was donated to Jon Powers’ failed campaign by the netroots, a poll like this is more useful as a fundraising tool for Alice Kryzan than as a legitimate snapshot of the state of the congressional race.

UPDATE: I have to say that I’m disappointed that friend Scott Leffler seems to take the poll at face value:

A 10 point lead has got to be nice for Kryzan. But 32 percent undecided in a Republican district has got to be a concern for her. Of course, she would only need slightly more than a third of the undecideds to win.

UPDATE: Roll Call has a story that backs up my assessment of the poll:

Republicans are sure to cry foul when they see the poll results. The Western New York district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats — as of March 1, there were 178,000 Republicans and 141,000 Democrats, while 121,000 voters were registered with minor parties or unaffiliated.

Yet the pollsters, while acknowledging that the district has more enrolled Republicans than Democrats, said 33 percent of the voters surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 32 percent Republicans and 25 percent independents.

I also said that the poll was more likely a fundraising tool for Kryzan… this part seems to support that to:

Despite the district’s leanings, Democrats have been bullish about their chances of winning Reynolds’ seat. But the DCCC backed a candidate other than Kryzan — Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who remains on the general election ballot as the nominee of the Working Families Party — and Democrats have been scrambling to shore her up since her primary win. Through Aug. 20, Lee, who is personally wealthy, was sitting on $751,000 in his campaign account, while Kryzan had just $95,000.

And one can’t help laughing at the irony of the last paragraph of the story:

The DCCC began airing an ad in the district over the weekend accusing Lee of sending some of his company’s business to China. Ironically, in a clerical error in its Federal Election Commission filing for the independent expenditure, the DCCC said it was placing the ad on behalf of Powers.

The ad accuses Chris Lee of “employing labor in China.”

This, of course, is a blatant lie. No jobs form Chris Lee’s company were transferred overseas. The company expanded to international markets, but no jobs were lost here in Western New York, no jobs were ever exported to China. The company employees over 350 people in Western New York. If Alice Kryzan and the DCCC think it’s a bad thing that when a local company is successful enough to be able to compete internationally, then I think they are the ones who have some explaining to do.

After the ad came out, ECGOP Chairman Jim Domagalski issued a statement:

“Kryzan should be ashamed of herself for this blatant hypocrisy,” said Erie County Republican Chairman Jim Domagalski.  ”Kryzan needs to denounce these ads as a complete and utter distortion of Chris’s record as a successful business leader who has actually created good paying jobs here in Western New York.  I dare ask the question, how many jobs has Alice Kryzan created?

“Alice Kryzan has said that Washington insiders shouldn’t select the person Western New Yorkers are going to send to Congress. Alice Kryzan needs to stand up and denounce these negative attack ads and live by her promise to turn away this outside liberal, special interest help.”

If Alice Kryzan wants to make job creation an issue of this campaign, I think that’s a debate the Chris Lee campaign will want to have. Only one candidate in this race has a record of creating jobs in Western New York…

…and it ain’t Alice Kryzan.

We’re all still waiting…

Leadership by example?

So, now they have to settle for Sloppy Seconds Alice Kryzan… and from the looks of things, the enthusiasm they had for the substitute teacher was far greater than they have for the trial lawyer.

So, they’ve predictably chosen to attack Chris Lee. And can you imagine, with the economic slowdown we’re experiencing right now that this blogger at Rochester Turning not only finds fault in Chris Lee’s background in business, but his opposition to regulation?

You don’t have to be an economics major to understand that regulation hurts businesses. But, who would think that a left-wing blogger would understand something as simple as that?

The WNY netroots is really grasping at straws in their lame attacks against Chris Lee. This blogger predictably chose to play the Bush card by saying “Christopher Lee is more George Bush.” It’s the same line of attack Democrats are using all over the country. Democrats like Barack Obama have no record to run on, so it’s easier to blame the world’s problems on President Bush and couple Bush with their opponent. 

That strategy hasn’t exactly worked all that well for Barack Obama, and it certainly isn’t going to work in the 26th district, a Republican-leaning district that went for Bush in 2000 and 2004, and reelected Tom Reynolds despite a rather toxic political environment for Republicans in 2006.

Playing the Bush Card is a weak strategy for the netroots. It is indicative of a major strategic problem they have in an election year where the economy is a top issue. Chris Lee’s background in business gives him a huge advantage over Sloppy Seconds Kryan’s experience as a trial lawyer.

UPDATE: Now isn’t this rich… After eight years of liberal bloggers calling President Bush things like “bushitler,” “bushit,” or “chimpy;” calling black Republicans “house slaves” or “Simple Sambo;” or new ones like calling Sarah Palin “Sarah Piglin,” somehow it’s Republican “old method of thinking” for me to refer to Alice Kryzan as the netroots’ sloppy seconds. Yet, for some reason, I am the one that should apologize for using offensive and “beyond the pale” language?  Ain’t that a hoot.

And I guess finding humor in Hurricane Gustav is somehow appropriate.