Looking ahead to the election for Governor, If the Republican primary for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Rick Lazio: 45%

Steve Levy: 16%

To be clear, Rick Lazio is a former Republican Congressman, and Steve Levy is the current Democratic Suffolk County Executive. Knowing that, who would you vote for if the Republican primary for Governor were held today?

Rick Lazio: 60%

Steve Levy: 19%

What this poll does not have, unfortunately, is any data on Carl Paladino, who is close to entering the race.

Another interesting thing about the poll is that George Pataki is still beating Kirsten Gillibrand in a hypothetical matchup for her Senate seat.  Let’s hope he runs and wins. That will make repealing Obama’s government-run health care that much easier.

Although everyone from Mayor Bloomberg to Rep. Anthony Weiner to Paterson himself have rejected the suggestion floated by Republicans and some supporters of the governor that Cuomo is too conflicted to investigate abusegate, 58 percent of those polled say a special prosecutor should be appointed.

(For the record, that’s something only the governor can do).

Cuomo’s approval rating has dropped from 67 percent in the last Marist poll to 54 percent. The AG’s numbers suffered a particularly big hit among non-white voters – a 22 percentage-point drop. He also lost ground in the city, dropping 17 percent.

Okay, so what can we make of this? Obviously, Cuomo handing the investigation of Paterson raises big red flags among voters. While some see the conflict of interest, the 22-point drop among non-white voters suggests to me that some of these voters are making a racial connection to Cuomo’s actions. Which, if I am right, is absurd. Everyone ought to be concerned that Cuomo was involved in an investigation of someone who was his potential political opponent. Sure Cuomo has yet to declare his candidacy, but he’s been considered a potential contender for some time now. He could enter the race today and this will still hang over his head.

True enough, this poll ought to tell Cuomo to jump in or declare that he won’t run. His position in the polls is keeping others from possibly jumping in, and he owes it to the people of New York to officially get in or stay out.

UPDATE: Cuomo sees the writing on the wall and recuses himself.

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said Thursday that he has recused himself and appointed an independent counsel to probe whether Gov. David A. Paterson illegally took World Series tickets or had improper contact with a woman who accused an aide of domestic violence.

He appointed former state chief judge Judith Kaye to the case.

Cuomo (D), who is widely expected to run for governor, had been criticized for investigating Paterson’s role in the case in which a woman accused a trusted Paterson (D) adviser of roughing her up. Some said a Cuomo probe would be a conflict of interest.

Rick Lazio released the following statement in response to the news.

“After calling for an independent prosecutor for weeks, I am glad that Andrew Cuomo finally agreed with me and recused himself from this investigation.  I have the utmost faith that Ms. Kaye will conduct an impartial and thorough investigation.  But it should not have required two weeks and a drop in the polls for Andrew Cuomo to recognize what he should have instinctively known from the beginning.”

Well, today, there is plenty of reason for the left to have fear of a Pataki run for the U.S. Senate. A new Marist poll from last week found the former governor of the Empire State would beat Senator Kirsten Gillibrand 48% to 44% in a hypothetical match-up. Her own approval rating is at 26 percent. With 2010 looking more like it’s going to be a particularly devastating election year for Democrats, it isn’t hard to imagine that Pataki will break 50 percent in a future poll. Which will hopefully send him the message that he needs to run.

And, let’s be honest here, in a match-up between Kirsten Gillibrand and George Pataki, it is David Paterson’s appointee that is the damaged goods.

New Yorkers are sending a strong message to Governor David Paterson, “Shape Up!”  Just 26% of registered voters report the governor is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  That’s a drop of 20 percentage points since the Marist Poll last asked this question at the end of January.  In fact, Governor Paterson’s approval rating is the lowest approval rating a New York State governor has received in the Marist Poll’s nearly thirty year history of statewide surveys. 

Paterson doesn’t get high marks from his own party either.

Among registered Democrats in New York State, 30% think Paterson is doing an above average job while 65% disagree.  Across the aisle, Republicans also overwhelmingly disapprove of Paterson’s performance.  Just 26% of members of New York’s GOP approve of the job Paterson is doing as governor while 72% think he is doing a fair or poor job.  Only 20% of non-enrolled voters agree that Paterson is doing well in the position.

Only 1 in 4 upstate voters approve of Paterson’s job performance.

Paterson has been digging his own grave for sometime… his handling of the budget situation has been laughable. The Hillary Senate Seat situation didn’t help him one bit, and his tax hike proposals are meeting fierce opposition. 

But Paterson’s problems may not just hurt his chances for reelection, it could help propel Republicans back into power in this state.

A prominent Bronx state senator is going public with what many of his fellow Democrats are saying in private – that Gov. Paterson’s bumbling performance may cost Democrats their newly gained control of the Senate next year.

“I’m worried about what’s going on with the governor,” said Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr., one of the “gang of three” that flirted with the GOP before voting to give their own party a 32-30 Senate lead.

“I’m very concerned that if things continue the way they’ve been going with the governor, after next year’s election we’re going to be in the minority again,” said Assemblyman Ruben Diaz Jr.’s father.

“We won in the fall because of the Obama tsunami, but we’ll no longer have that next year, and things will be different.

“Gov. Paterson has been unlucky with the national economy,” he added, “but even though he’s a nice human being, there are things he’s done that have created problems – the Caroline Kennedy stuff, the salary increases for his staff and his wife’s chief of staff. This isn’t the time to be doing that, when you’re asking state employees to get 3 percent pay cuts.” 

Paterson’s bungling may even help a Republican win the governor’s race in 2010,  A Siena College survey has Rudy Giuliani beating Paterson. 

Paterson’s inability to lead may provide Republicans with the opportunity to take this state back from the party that has run it into the ground… at all levels of government. Even in the 20th district Republican Jim Tedisco is leading in the polls and is expected to win the congressional seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand.