Following up on my earlier report that a new poll has Obama’s lead in New York trimmed down to 5 points, Ed Cox, who heads John McCain’s New York campaign, believes the poll shows that New York State is very much in play.

The man who heads John McCain’s New York campaign says the Empire State has been very blue in the last four presidential elections with democratic candidates carrying the state by 15 to 30 percentage points.

Ed Cox says that’s about to change. He points to Barack Obama’s 18 point lead in a June Siena College poll that recently has dwindled to just more than two points. Cox calls it a sign New Yorkers are buying into McCain’s message.

 

“He’s a reformer, that he’s a maverick, he’s a real agent of change, he has the experience to protect and defend the people of this country in respect to national security affairs,” Cox explained. “John McCain, for all those reasons which came out at the convention and of course his nominating Governor Palin as his vice presidential candidate, all those things have put New York into play.”

Cox doesn’t believe Hillary Clinton’s influence will be enough for Obama to carry New York State. Cox says comments Clinton made during the primaries that Obama is not ready to be president will sway many of her supporters to vote for McCain.

Cox wouldn’t say if McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, would convince Hillary supporters to consider the republican ticket. Instead he goes back to the New York senator’s earlier statements on Obama lacking experience.

“A lot of her supporters are taking her at her word on that,” he said. “They’re taking a look at both candidates and they’re coming to John McCain’s banner. It’s very gratifying to see them coming over to support John McCain.” 

I’m still skeptical that New York really is in play, but it is obvious from multiple polls that Obama’s lead here has dropped significantly. This, while may not be enough to bring about a McCain victory here, does indicate a larger problem for Obama in actual battleground states, such as our  neighboring states Ohio and Pennsylvania. Personally, while it is nice to see the polls close here, I’d much rather see the New York State Republican Party concentrate their GOTV resources for the presidential race down in those states.

Tags: Barack Obama, Ed Cox, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Sarah Palin

It is nice to know that some people are fighting for the taxpayers and not kowtowing to the unions.

Honoring a campaign pledge, Erie County Executive Chris Collins suspended the controversial, union-friendly apprenticeship law that business leaders felt unnecessarily drove up the cost of county-financed public works construction projects.

The Erie County Legislature enacted the apprenticeship law two years ago, despite concerns raised by the business community that the law favored unions, limited those who could bid on projects and, effectively, increased construction costs for the cash-starved county.

The law mandated any firm that bid on a county construction project had to have an approved apprenticeship and training program.

“It was the most anti-business, anti-taxpayer law in the county,” Collins said.

To suspend the law, Collins on July 21 submitted a new set of rules and regulations that withdrew the apprenticeship requirement to the Erie County Legislature. The Legislature’s majority had 60 days to block the new set of rules, but failed to do so.

“We did this in the open,” Collins said. “This has been in the light of the day for the past 60 days. We did not try to sneak it past anyone.”

Last summer, then-Gov. Eliot Spitzer also suspended apprenticeship requirements for all state projects.

Erie County Legislator Michael Ranzenhofer, R-Clarence, said the apprenticeship law drove up construction costs between 20 percent and 30 percent.

“It was so un-American and so unfair,” he said. “There will be no more special treatments.”

Tags: Buffalo, Chris Collins, Eliot Spitzer, Erie County, Mike Ranzenhofer, unions

Wow, if the Buffalo News recognizes that Charlie Rangel should step down… then he really ought to consider doing such.

His situation is nearly untenable. He leads the House tax-writing committee, yet he acknowledges that he failed to report about $75,000 in rental income on his beach house in the Dominican Republic. He owes about $5,000 to the IRS in back taxes on that income and somewhat less in state and local taxes. Rangel also says he did not know he received a no-interest mortgage from the developers of the Dominican resort. In addition, financial discrepancies have turned up in disclosure documents he has filed.

It’s all too much for a congressman with such influence over federal tax policy. Indeed, were Republicans still in the majority, Rangel and his compatriots would be clamoring for the head of a committee chairman with these problems — as GOP critics are calling for Rangel’s.

Of course, Rangel refuses to step down, which is pretty typical of a Democrat. If a Republican were in the same situation, Nancy Pelosi would be demanding resignations and calling for investigations, but with a member of her own party, she’s letting it slide.

Tags: Charles Rangel, liberal hypocrisy, Nancy Pelosi

Looks like Jack Davis has reached the end of the line for his latest congressional bid:

A State Supreme Court justice Thursday rejected congressional candidate Jack Davis’ attempt to remain on the November ballot, ending his third attempt to win the job.

Davis said Thursday he left a voice mail with Democratic primary winner Alice J. Kryzan to congratulate her on her victory but would not commit to helping her in her campaign against Republican Christopher J. Lee.

Davis said he would help Kryzan in the campaign if he thought she accepted his anti-free trade message but expressed his doubts. “I don’t think she understands my message,” he said.

Justice Richard M. Platkin of Albany disagreed with Davis’ contention that his petition to form a minor party line called Save Jobs and Farms should have been accepted even though he failed to file a certificate of acceptance on time, as required by state election law. 

Davis argued that the state Board of Elections should have provided him an opportunity to submit the late application anyway and that the board acted “arbitrarily and capriciously” in not allowing him to file. 

The judge ruled otherwise. 

Of course, while that settles that, we’re still waiting to hear what Jon Powers is planning to do.

Tags: Buffalo, Jack Davis, Jon Powers

It’s now over week. 

We’re all still waiting…

Leadership by example?

Tags: Jon Powers

Chris Lee got a big endorsement today from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

“I am honored to have the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce,” said Lee. “As someone who has seen how government regulations can strangle small businesses, I will fight to reduce regulation and lower taxes to encourage economic growth and job creation in Western New York.”

The Chamber of Commerce is the world’s largest business federation representing over three million businesses and organizations, both large and small. The Chamber supports advanced legislation that promotes the interests of the business community. Historically, a Chamber endorsement has benefited many candidates. In the 2006 election alone, 222 of the 277 Chamber-endorsed candidates were successful in their bid for elective office.

“Chris Lee will be a champion for the people of Western New York and an invaluable leader on important business issues,” said Bill Miller, the U.S. Chamber’s senior vice president and political director. “On issues ranging from tax cuts to reducing energy costs, New York’s business community will have no better friend in Washington than Chris Lee.”

“It is the Chamber’s goal to help elect a pro-business Congress and work diligently in the interest of businesses large and small to advance legislation that encourages economic growth, job creation, and less intrusive federal government,” said Thomas J. Donohue, President and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “Chris Lee’s support of pro-business issues earned this endorsement. We believe Chris’s election to the U.S. House will help produce sustained economic growth and promote America’s competitiveness in world markets.”

Meanwhile, Alice Kryzan boasts the endorsement of liberal organizations like Emily’s List and the National Organization for Women PAC. Yeah. 

Kryzan being endorsed by groups that will endorse any pro-abortion liberal woman doesn’t exactly impress me… and certainly won’t impress a majority of the voters of the 26th district. Chris Lee being endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is much more significant, and is more likely to impress the voters.

Tags: Alice Kryzan, Chris Lee

Chris Lee has a new ad out:

Donate.

Tags: Chris Lee

This news release from the Federal Election Commission apparently missed the radar of the Buffalo News: 

WASHINGTON — The Federal Election Commission (FEC) cited four campaign committees today for failing to file the Pre-Primary Report required by the Federal Election Campaign Act (the Act) for primary elections on September 9.

As of 5 p.m. September 5, 2008, the required disclosure report had not been received from Barb Davis White for Congress, the principal campaign committee for Barbara Davis White in Minnesota’s 5th district whose treasurer is Ly’neys Rita Hill; Higgins for Congress, the principal campaign committee for Brian Higgins in New York’s 27th district whose treasurer is Gary M. Kanaley; Friends of Graham Long, principal campaign committee for Graham E. Long in New York’s 3rd district whose treasurer is Anita Long; and Stark for Congress, principal campaign committee for Paul Stark in Wisconsin’s 3rd district whose treasurer is John Sackett.

The reports were due on August 28, 2008, and should have included financial activity for the period July 1, 2008, through August 20, 2008.  If sent by certified or registered mail, the report should have been postmarked by August 25, 2008.

The committees were notifed in early August of their requirement. So, why didn’t Brian Higgins file his reports, and why hasn’t this been considered newsworthy by the Buffalo News?

Tags: Brian Higgins, Buffalo, media bias

Buffalo 14228 makes this weak argument against Mike Ranzenhofer:

He’ll do what Mary Lou Rath, the current Republican state senator for 14 years, was unable or unwilling to do…get something done. No sense going through the list of all the previous ineffectve Republican predecessors. All you need to know is that the State Senate has been controlled by Ranzenhofer’s Republican Party for the last 75 years. Electing him won’t correct what amounts to a Republican institutional problem.

The fallacy of this argument is that the New York state government is by no means a Republican institution. If Republicans lose control of the state senate, then the Democrats will have control of the Assembly, the Senate, and the governorship. That, my friends, would mean the Democrats would have an unfettered rubber stamp to impose more regulations and higher taxes, which ultimately leads to driving out the population and driving out businesses. You don’t have to take my word for it… it’s happening right now in Massachusetts.

If that’s what the netroots want, then by all means they can vote for Baby Joe. But, I think this state deserves better than a dysfunctional one-party government.

Tags: Massachusetts, Mike Ranzenhofer, netroots, taxes

The netroots who are keeping an eye on the congressional race in the 26th district clearly are lost in the wilderness. Their golden boy Jon Powers lost in the primary after being dogged by the War Kids scandal and after getting caught up in a nasty battle of attack ads with Jack Davis.

So, now they have to settle for Sloppy Seconds Alice Kryzan… and from the looks of things, the enthusiasm they had for the substitute teacher was far greater than they have for the trial lawyer.

So, they’ve predictably chosen to attack Chris Lee. And can you imagine, with the economic slowdown we’re experiencing right now that this blogger at Rochester Turning not only finds fault in Chris Lee’s background in business, but his opposition to regulation?

You don’t have to be an economics major to understand that regulation hurts businesses. But, who would think that a left-wing blogger would understand something as simple as that?

The WNY netroots is really grasping at straws in their lame attacks against Chris Lee. This blogger predictably chose to play the Bush card by saying “Christopher Lee is more George Bush.” It’s the same line of attack Democrats are using all over the country. Democrats like Barack Obama have no record to run on, so it’s easier to blame the world’s problems on President Bush and couple Bush with their opponent. 

That strategy hasn’t exactly worked all that well for Barack Obama, and it certainly isn’t going to work in the 26th district, a Republican-leaning district that went for Bush in 2000 and 2004, and reelected Tom Reynolds despite a rather toxic political environment for Republicans in 2006.

Playing the Bush Card is a weak strategy for the netroots. It is indicative of a major strategic problem they have in an election year where the economy is a top issue. Chris Lee’s background in business gives him a huge advantage over Sloppy Seconds Kryan’s experience as a trial lawyer.

UPDATE: Now isn’t this rich… After eight years of liberal bloggers calling President Bush things like “bushitler,” “bushit,” or “chimpy;” calling black Republicans “house slaves” or “Simple Sambo;” or new ones like calling Sarah Palin “Sarah Piglin,” somehow it’s Republican “old method of thinking” for me to refer to Alice Kryzan as the netroots’ sloppy seconds. Yet, for some reason, I am the one that should apologize for using offensive and “beyond the pale” language?  Ain’t that a hoot.

And I guess finding humor in Hurricane Gustav is somehow appropriate.

Tags: Alice Kryzan, Chris Lee, Jack Davis, Jon Powers

It has now been a week since Jon Powers lost the Democratic primary to Alice Kryzan, and we still have no official word about what he plans to do with campaign. As we know, he will be on the November ballot on the Working Families Party line, but he has not declared whether he plans to continue campaigning, or endorse Alice Kryzan.

I’ve repeatedly tried instant messaging and emailing Powers’ campaign manager, John Gerken, to no avail. I don’t know what this all means, but I’m inclined to believe that the longer Powers is silent on his plans, the more likely it is that he will eventually choose to keep his campaign going. Truthfully, I think the odds are against Powers continuing his campaign, as Alice Kryzan now has the backing of the Working Families Party and the DCCC. But, Powers is reportedly taking his defeat pretty hard… and that makes me think he’s not ready to give it up.

Tags: Alice Kryzan, Jon Powers

Dr. James Campbell, chairman of the University at Buffalo’s political science department, weighs in on the race for the 26th district in an interview with the Tonawanda News:

Q: How do you think Kryzan will fare against Republican Christopher Lee in the general election?

A: I think it’s going to be a close race. This is a district that, in the past at least, has tilted toward Republican candidates. Given that, Lee has a head start with Democrats coming out of a divisive primary. Kryzan won the support of her party, but she got less than 50 percent of the vote so she’s got some work to do. You’d like to come out of your own party’s nomination with at least 60 percent of the party pulling the lever for you.

In my view, Chris Lee enters the race with the most advantages. Adding to his chances is the fact that the excitement generated by John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate has trickled down to congressional races, according to Gallup. Chris Lee already had the advantage in the Republican-leaning district, so Palin factor only increases his chances.

Dr. James Campbell also has a prediction for the presidential race:

Q: On to the presidential election, how do you think things will shake out between Barack Obama and John McCain?

A: The forecasting model I’ve been using since 1992 to predict the election is based on analysis of polls taken at different times during the campaign, trying to read them in historical context and how they’ve correlated with the vote since 1948. Mainly it uses the post-convention, early September Gallup poll and the second-quarter growth numbers for the economy. Together, those things provide a pretty good chance that McCain will get between 52 and 53 percent of the two-party popular vote.

Based on the state of the races, and the movement in national and state polls, I think this is a very good prediction. 

Tags: Barack Obama, Chris Lee, John McCain

Nancy Pelosi may be publicly supporting Charlie Rangel by saying she won’t ask him to step aside, but the New York Post says sources tell them that privately, Pelosi is urging Rangel to step aside.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yesterday privately pushed Rep. Charlie Rangel to give up his chairmanship of the influential House tax-rules committee amid explosive revelations that his personal tax filings were riddled with errors and omissions, a wellplaced source said.

[...]

One member of the New York congressional delegation who supported Pelosi’s decision said, “You have to have one standard - you can’t have one for [Republicans] and one for us.”

Rangel himself remained mum on his sitdown with Pelosi after exiting a later, separate meeting with fellow Democratic committee members.

“I am unable to say anything,” he said before bizarrely rattling off his name, rank and serial number from his Korean War days. “Do to me what you want, I’m not talking.”

The 76-year-old politician smiled when asked if he was still chairman of the powerful tax panel.

Pelosi later denied through spokesperson Nadeam Elshami that she has asked Rangel to step aside.

 If Pelosi doesn’t ask Rangel to step aside as chairman, then John McCain stands to benefit significantly, as he supports the fact that unlike his fellow Democrats, he’s willing to target corruption within his own party. As the Democrats’ presidential nominee, Barack Obama should have called for Rangel to step aside when the allegations first surfaced. But, he didn’t, thus missing his chance to match his rhetoric with actions. But then again, when your campaign is based on slogans over substance, what else were we to expect?

Tags: Barack Obama, Charles Rangel, corruption, John McCain, Nancy Pelosi

A new poll by the Siena Research Institute shows New York is looking a lot more purple than blue, with Obama leading McCain 46-41… the poll has a MOE of +/- 3.9 points.

The race for the White House is a statistical dead heat, according to a new poll.

Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, leads Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee, 46 percent to 41 percent in a survey of 626 registered voters by the Siena Research Institute in upstate Loudonville. The survey, conducted last week, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ’safe’ state for Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said pollster Steven Greenberg. “The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

Democrats have a 5:3 enrollment advantage in the state.

The poll also found that 47% of respondents say Sarah Palin is qualified to be president, while only 41% said she isn’t.

Things look well for Republicans on the state level as well.

In terms of state issues, people were evenly divided, 44 percent to 44 percent, on whether the State Senate should remain in Republican hands. The GOP majority is down to just two seats with Democrats making a strong push to take control of the legislature’s upper chamber for the first time in more than 40 years.

This is huge. If this poll is correct, New York is in play. If New York is in play, then this is really bad news for Barack Obama, as it is clear that as we get closer to the election, McCain is increasing his lead in battleground states, or is closing the gap.

Of course, this poll could merely be an outlier. Quite frankly, as encouraging as this poll is, I’d like to see a couple other new polls reflect the same competitiveness in the state before I start looking at New York as a battleground state. There have been polls that had Obama up by eight points, but most have given him a very solid lead.

UPDATE: Real Clear Politics Poll Average has Obama up by 15 points in New York. There has, however, been a significant jump for McCain in New York, and it is worth noting that prior to the poll from Siena Research Institute, the last poll is over a month old.  The last poll from Siena had Obama up by 8. So, their polling has shown a similar tightening of the race as other polls have.

I have no doubt McCain is closing the gap in New York, but I need to see more polling that shows the race as tight as Siena has it before I’ll believe it is truly that close.

UPDATE: Russ Gugino, head of McCain’s campaign in Western New York reacts:

“I’m pleasantly surprised, but not too surprised,” says Russ Gugino, the head of McCain’s campaign in Western New York.

“I’m not worried,” says Betty Jean Grant, a local Obama organizer.

Not worried she says because she believes the new numbers reflect a post-convention bounce for McCain caused by his choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President.

“I think people who might be a little angry, frustrated, because Hillary (Cinton) did not make the choice for Vice President,” she says.

“These people are going to say at the end of the day ‘I’m going to do what’s best for my family, what’s best for my pocketbook, what’s best for me.’”

NBC Mews political analyst Chuck Todd tells Scott Brown that when looking at the new poll, it’s important to note that McCain didn’t pick up any new voters.

Todd says the race got a little closer only because some Obama voters moved into the undecided column after the Republican convention, and that’s to be expected Todd says.

Scott Brown: “Do you think McCain has any shot in New York, and do you think we’ll see him do any campaigning here?” Todd: “No, he’s got no shot in New York. It’s really tough when you look at where he’s got to do well in other parts of the country to spend the money that it would take to make New York competitive, it’s just not a wise investment.”

“We’re trying to get Sarah Palin here, we’re trying to get John McCain here,” says Russ Gugino.

I don’t think the poll is showing the effect of a post-convention bounce. I think it shows a gradual bleed of support away from Obama. Polls of the state have trended in that direction. Still there’s plenty of reason to doubt the race in New York is really within the margin of error.

Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, Sarah Palin, Siena Poll

Isn’t it great that Nancy Pelosi, who promised to lead the most open, honest and ethical Congress in history, won’t strip Charlie Rangel of his chairmanship?

Even when Rep. Charles Rangel tries to explain how he got into his tax mess, he mangles the facts so much it’s easy to see how his accounts - and accountants - are muddled. And this from the lawmaker who has such a big say in determining who pays taxes and how much.

The chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee spent the past week reeling from a series of embarrassing revelations: He failed to report about $75,000 in rental income over two decades from a beach villa he owns in the Dominican Republic; he owes about $5,000 in back taxes to the government; he never knew he paid no interest on the villa’s mortgage for more than a decade.

Rangel’s actions are not just innocent omissions or minor blunders. There is no excuse. He needs to either step down or be stripped of his chairmanship.

Rangel’s basic defense is that he paid little or no attention to a building he bought, the mortgage he got to buy it or the rent it earned to pay the mortgage. Or the taxes due on someone else paying his mortgage. He claims to have no idea what the house is even worth.

Davis says that will change now that he has hired a second lawyer to monitor “all his tax and financial statements going forward and be sure they are meticulously correct.”

Republicans say Rangel had to have known exactly what he was doing.

“It is a sick irony that the top legislator on tax policy in the House is circumventing the very tax laws that he himself has authored,” said Ken Spain, spokesman for the GOP’s House campaign committee.

The fact that he is being protected by his party should bother all voters, regardless of whether they’re a Republican or Democrat. We’re supposed to expect more of our political leaders and hold them to a higher standard. Charlie Rangel has violated the trust of his constituents and the American people. 

UPDATE: Even the New York Times is calling on Rangel to step aside.

Mounting embarrassment for taxpayers and Congress makes it imperative that Representative Charles Rangel step aside as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee while his ethical problems are investigated.

[...]

Mr. Rangel has hurt his case with clumsy, combative pleas of ignorance of the facts and law involving his Dominican villa. “We do make errors, even though we consider ourselves experts in terms of tax policy for the nation,” said the lawmaker, who has three decades’ experience on Ways and Means.

His excuse of “cultural and language barriers” with Dominican officials was, simply, offensive. “Every time I thought I was getting somewhere, they’d start speaking Spanish,” complained Mr. Rangel.

Excuses. Excuses. Excuses. For once, I agree with the New York Times. Mr. Rangel, step aside.

Tags: Charles Rangel, corruption, taxes

I literally just saw one of Jack Davis’s campaign ads on TNT. Now, Jack Davis is no longer in the race, as he came in third in the Democratic primary, and his attempt to get on the ballot in November under his “Save Jobs and Farms” Party… and the ad is one that attacks Jon Powers, who is likely not going to continue campaigning… so why is his ad still running nearly a week after the primary? 

Tags: Jack Davis